No longer a zombie

Wow after doing 3 games last night I came home looking just like this guy up above.  And feeling like him too.  A cold shower did a lot to at least cool me off as it was huuuuuuuuuumid yesterday and last night.  At least it cooled off some as the sun went down.  The games themselves went off fine and I only was hit pretty good once in the back, but when we finished I was ready to get off the field. 

I woke up this morning looking better but still feeling zombieish and my legs were sore but I felt better than I did last night.  The PQ and I took her mother out to breakfast.  Some steak and eggs, toast, and homefries with plenty of coffee and tada, no longer a zombie. 

Just got back after picking up a couple of prescriptions and some things at the store.  I got out of cooking breakfast today by using some referee cash and buying it but the PQ has already told me I'm not getting out of cooking dinner for her.  So I had to pick up a few ingredients and some salad stuff.  Chicken piccata at 5:30.  Drop by if you want a bite.

Time for some picks.

There isn't a lot I like today on the NFL slate but here's a couple I may play.

I'll take the over 54.5 in the New England/Buffalo contest.  I don't see either defense doing enough to stop either offense.  I figure we might see a score like 38 - 28 in this one.

I like Houston +4 in New Orleans due to injuries to both Marques Colston and Jonathan Vilma. 

Give me the Raiders +2.5 vs the New York Jets.  This game should be a walk for Sanchez against the weak Raider secondary but this is the type of game where Sanchez has been known to lay an egg, especially if he is pressured.  The Raiders can get to the QB and NY lost their center, All Pro Nick Mangold.  This Raider offense has a lot of weapons, even with injuries to Murphy and Ford and may have found a star in Denarious Moore. 

I was looking at the Steelers -10 (now -11) vs Indy but something about Pittsburgh doesn't seem right to me.  I expected them to completely blow out Seattle last week and 24-0 is a blowout but not to the extent I expected.  Yes Indy is pretty bad without Peyton but I just think this will be closer than that.  I also thought about taking Miami -1.5 vs Cleveland as I think they will play better on the road than at home.  I may still take that one.

Had a decent day on my short term investments yesterday.  LSU proved to me they are for real by thrashing West Virginia but it was a close game until the 4th quarter.   Alabama easily covered, Middle Tennessee St stayed right with Troy before losing by 3 and easily covering as well.  UCLA was the best of the picks as they won outright at Oregon St as a 4.5 point dog.  Wish I had played that one on the money line instead of taking the points.  But it was nice to finish in the money again this week.  Not sure if I want to put any of my profit on the table in today's games, maybe I'll just take the over in the Patriot game.

That's enough for now, almost kickoff time.  Stay lucky you nuts and remember, bet with your head, not over it.

No poker for you

It's another Saturday night of poker for some in my household but my participation is limited solely to staking the PQ in a tourney.  While she is sitting in air conditioned comfort raising and bluffing the locals, I will be chasing the kids around a football field 5 miles down the road and most probably sweating my ass off.  The way I feel right now, I probably won't be running too fast.

Thursday night I had to do  JV ball game just down a few miles from the house.  The sky was ugly when I got to the game and I figured we'd be lucky to get the game started.  But we got going and actually got most of the way through the first quarter before some lightning strikes convinced us to suspend the game for a while.  Everyone trooped inside to wait it out.  There was a fair amount of thunder and lightning but it really didn't rain hard.  About 45 minutes later we went back outside as the rain and lightning had stopped at least for now.  We gave the teams some time to warm back up and started up again.  The home team was far superior to the visitors and the game became a blow out.  Lightning appeared in the distance to our west (the storms had come in from the east it seemed) so it looked like everything was blowing out into the Gulf.  As the game progressed though, the lightning to our west got stronger and the storm didn't go away, it just kind of sat there.  We came close to stopping the game a couple of times but the storm didn't get nearer either though the lightning was impressive a couple of times.  Fortunately the game was a blow out, we cut the halftime break short and had a running clock through much of the 2nd half so we got out of there pretty quickly.  It wasn't a hard game to ref and though I got run into pretty good on one play, I came out of the game feeling pretty good.

Friday was not so kind to me.  We had to go to Admiral Farragut to do their game with Keswick Christian.  Farragut is a good time, and they were expected to compete for the state title this year in their class.  No team from this county has won a state championship in football in 30 or 40 years so if they got there it would be a pretty big thing.  But last week, Farragut had suffered injuries to their QB and a couple of other big players and lost a game they were expected to win.  The QB is still out so we weren't sure what kind of game we would see. 

When the game began I could tell Farragut was a good bit better than Keswick and they marched down and scored fairly quickly.  About midway through the 2nd quarter Farragut was up 14-0 and hadn't been threatened.  They were pretty undisciplined and took some stupid penalties though.  Farragut had to punt from their own 40 yard line and the center snaps it over the punter's head.  The punter goes back to pick up the ball on his own 15 and muffs it but then finally picks it up.  Keswick is all over him and he gets the bright idea to pitch the ball to a teammate.  The ball hits the ground and a mad scramble begins for the ball.  By the time it's finally recovered, the ball is on the 2 yard line.  Keswick punches it in from there and is only down 14-7 at the half. 

I was ready for half time by then.  A guy had hit me in the side during one play when there was a fumble right in front of me.  I had also turned my knee a little as my foot got caught up in some soft ground when I turned to follow a play.  The third quarter starts and there's more undisciplined play.  Farragut goes to punt from their own 30 and the center snaps it over the punter's head again.  This time someone must have talked to the punter because this time he picks the ball up at about the 10 and heaves a pass out of bounds.  The play might have worked in the NFL.  Here in high school it didn't.  There is no rule in high school ball about throwing a ball away if you're outside the tackle box.  The rule in high school is, this is intentional grounding.  So instead of Keswick taking over at the 30 yard line due to an incomplete pass, we have intentional grounding from the 10 yard line.  Loss of down and half the distance to the goal, Keswick takes over at the 5 yard line.  They punch it in for the TD but the extra point is blocked and they are still down 14-13. 

Keswick tries an onside kick and almost gets the ball but Farragut takes over on their 40.  A great catch on 3rd down gets them inside the 10.  The next play they run to the right and runner gets close to the goal line.  I'm trying to get close to the play to see if there is a fumble or the ball breaks the plane but guys are running into me and one guy gets blocked into me and gets me with his cleats in the shin.  That hurt.  The runner goes down just before the goal line and I'm hobbling up to the ball after that.  The next down Farragut punches it in.  At the end of 3 its 21 - 13 and we still have a ball game.   The 4th quarter is still more of the same undisciplined stuff from Farragut.  Midway through the 4th Farragut is driving on the Keswick 35 still up by eight.  After a short pass the receiver and a defender start jawing at each other.  Me and another ref go to break them up and as their starting to separate, the Farragut player pushes the other player in the face.  Up goes my flag, 15 yards for unsportsmanlike conduct.  Another stupid penalty.  Undisciplined.  Game finishes out as Keswick never threatens another score and Farragut doesn't snap any more balls over the punter's head to set them up.  Still it was a decent game to ref outside of the hits I took.  I know why the NFL moved the umpire to the offensive backfield.  Even in high school it's a jungle out there, you got the lions fighting the water buffalo and I'm just caught alone in between them.

Here's some picks for the college games today:

I like West Virginia +6 over LSU today.  LSU is very good but WVU is no slouch and after 2 big wins over good teams the last few weeks, LSU is due for a non conference let down.  Also Morgantown WV is a tough place to play.  If LSU goes out and whips them, I really want to see their game against Bama later on this year. 

I'm also taking Alabama -11.5 over Arkansas.  Arkansas is young, Alabama returned 10 of 11 from their terrific defense last year.  Yes they lost some offensive players but it's not gonna matter.  Alabama takes this down by 3 tds. 

I'll take Middle Tenn St +12.5 against Troy St.  Troy is pretty good but MTSU plays them tough.  I expect this game to be a lot closer than the spread. 

One other one I'm looking at and may play is UCLA getting 4.5 at Oregon St.  Oregon St lost to Sacramento St and is favored against anyone?  Not to say UCLA is all that but at least they beat San Jose St and played tough with Houston who is pretty good this year. 

So that's my story today.  I'm gonna spend the rest of the morning and early afternoon rehydrating and thinking about a dream I had last night - actually this morning.  When I got home last night, the PQ was nodding out in her recliner and I sent her off to bed.  I had picked up a bite to eat on the way home.  While I was eating I started watching the Orlando Edgewater football game from that night.  I guess it carried over when I went to bed.  Somehow I dreamed I was refereeing that Edgewater game.  At halftime we're leaving the field and I look in the stands  and see Casey Anthony in the stands.  I called out to her that I knew someone who was a big fan of hers.  She said, "well why don't you give me his number and I'll give him a call." but I told her he had recently had heart problems and talking to her (or more) would probably do him in.  Sorry Light.

I hope everyone has a great weekend.  I hope I survive my 3 games tonight relatively unharmed.  I also hope I win the lottery tonight.  I think my chances are slightly better on the first than the second hope.  Have fun y'all and stay lucky. 

Saturday night fever

Since we hadn't played any live poker lately, the PQ and I had a bit of a fever to tangle with the sharps at the local card room and try our luck.  I was pretty tired after refereeing a couple of games so I had napped for about an hour before we got going and felt a little lethargic but a lot better when we left. 

Let me break for a moment but putting my picks in for today before the games get all going.

I like Dallas -3 over SF - Dallas has a lot of firepower and SF has Alex Smith.  Nuff said.
San Diego +6.5 over New England.  New England should win but last week, SD played a game they would have normally lost and managed to pull it out. They look different this year.  They have the offense to stay with NE.  NE has a defense that can give up points.  Might want to look at the over as well, but 53.5 is high for the NFL.
Chicago +5 over New Orleans.  I'm not sold on NO this year, defensively they do not look good.  Chicago does look good defensively.  I liked this line a lot more at +7 but will take it at 5.

Ok back again.

So we hit the 6pm tourney that my wife and I like so much.  It was bigger than usual with about 50 players.  Not too bad.  PQ got out to a hot start and knocked out 2 or 3 players at her table.  I was coooooooooooooooooooold.  Could not get much to play with and spent the first 1/2 hour watching my table mates.  One guy would push any good hand no matter how bad the flop was for him.  One lady was new to tourneys and she would play anything against any raise.  If she hit any part of the flop you couldn't get rid of her.  This guy pushed AK against her and she called him down and then raised the river when he bricked out.  He fold AK face up and she had Q4 and flopped a Q.  She hit him up for a good chunk but he got her back when he had AQ and flopped QJ4.  She called him all the way with J2.  Then I finally get AK myself and raise in middle position to 400.  This lady calls from the button and her nemesis then raises to 1K from the big blind.  I put him on a good hand but nothing better than what I had and maybe AQ or AJ.  Her I had no idea about.  Flop is 10-10-8.  Guy checks, I check, lady bets 1K.  He calls, I'm outta here.  She has something, maybe a 10.   Guy goes with her all the way to the river and loses another chunk to her when she flips over JJ and he has AK again.  He calls a completely blank river and is shocked she actually has something.  Dude everytime she bets she has something and you're shocked??  She later gets busted when she gets all in after flopping a pair of Jacks on a QJ2 flop in a raised pot.  Unfortunately her opponent had KK and she gave him all her chips.  She had J6 and called his preflop raise.  I never got a big hand against her so never got to take advantage.

After the first hour I've managed to lose just over 1/3 of my starting chips.  I've had no other good hands and the few position raises I've made have been met with numerous calls and no good flops.  I've maybe played 4 hands all told and lost over 2K.  I get dealt 88 on the button.  Mr AK raises to 500 and I debate going over the top of him but figure on waiting to see the flop as I'm pretty sure he has 2 big cards and will call me preflop.  So I'm the only caller.  Flop is 10 high, no help to me but I don't think it helped him either.  He bets 1K and I put in my last 3200.  He thinks for a minute and I know he has nothing.  Then he calls and flips up......AK.  Man loves his AK.  Turn and river did not help him and I double up.  He is down to 600 after that. 

Next time I'm on the button I get 6-2.  3 people call preflop so I decide to call as well.  Normally I dump but Arnold Snyder said you should almost always call here even when you have trash.  Arnie is right. Flop is A22.  Everyone checks to a guy on my right who bets 300.  I call and the others fold.  Turn is a 10.  Guy checks and I put 600 in.  He calls me.  River is an 8.  He checks again and I think for a minute then put in another 600 like I'm just trying to buy the pot for the same bet.  he calls me and is shocked when I flip over the 2.  He had a low ace and though he might have kicker problems.  He had more than that.  This puts me up over 9k and I'm feeling a lot better even though the best I've had is AK once and 88 once.  Our table breaks and I get seated between 2 chatty ladies who are both drinking a bit.  This table is a bit wild, a lot of raising back and forth so I figure on taking my time to wait on something and establish a table image.  I take down a couple of pots with some position play as I still am not getting much and my raises are at least getting some respect.  I hit the break at about 12K which is double my stack and am pretty happy at that, especially as my cards have been pretty much crap.  PQ is sitting at over 20K and is one of the chip leaders.

Guy in seat 2 is a bit loose and wild and will raise just about any 2 cards.  I figured on picking him off but never got the chance.  One time I took a shot, and he put me to the test for all my chips.  I figured I was ahead with 88 but also figured he had a hand this time as he showed a weak hand last time he raised so even if he had KJ I was at best 50/50.  I could afford to lose some chips there so I took the hit and moved on.  Chick to my right goes bust when she pushes all in after flopping 2 pair with J6.  Too bad for her the guy in seat 2 flopped two pair with A6 and he took her out.  Gal to my right is playing tight but as the alcohol hits her she loosens up.  I take a couple of pots off her though when she calls my position raises but flops nothing and gives in to my continuation bet.  I noticed too late that she loves to play any ace.  I get KQ which is the best hand since 88 and raise and she calls.  Flop is unfortunately Ace high.  I debate checking but put in a continuation bet which she calls.  I know she has an ace.  Turn is a 10 giving me an inside straight draw and we both check.  River is a blank.  I'm debating pushing all in and making her decide but I know she has the ace and after this much alcohol, doubt she will lay it down and check again folding to her river bet.  She takes out another guy soon after when she gets KK and he pushes all in over her raise with AQ.  She got KK 3 times in the next hour or so.  I can't get crap.  Sometimes poker is not fair.

We get broken to again and are down to 2 tables.  I'm sitting 2 seats to the left of PQ now with the drinking gal in between us.  She hits another big pot with KK (of course) and people are going bust.  PQ has a decent stack but is not doing anything with it but calling a few times. She isn't getting much to play obviously but she has a big enough stack to push people around and has a pretty tight image.  I'm getting short now after my last debacle and though I steal a couple of pots, the blinds and antes are getting up there.  But I watch my fellow players and have a pretty good read on their play.  I get AJ in first position and push all in.  Gal just to my left debates calling and I know she has a hand as she is pretty tight.  She eventually dumps and I get a walk when everyone else does too.  The drinker got moved to another table to even them up.  A few hands later I have A9 on the button.  Guy in early position raises to 2200 and I don't put him on anything too big, probably 2 face cards or a small-mid pair.  Figure I'm ahead or only a little behind so I push all in.  He calls the 3K more I put in and he is reluctant so I know he isn't too strong.  He flips over QJ and I am ahead but it's a race.  Flop has both a Q and a 9 so I'm behind but river is an Ace and I have life again.  I manage to take down another pot with the legendary 4-2.  PQ is losing chips but gets healthy in a hurry when she gets AA and some guy pushes all in with 33.  Good night to him as he doesn't improve and she almost doubles up from it.

I get moved to seat 10 sitting on about 18K.  Average stack is about 25K.  PQ has over 30K.  Drinking gal is over by her with a big stack as is the wild guy from my second table also with a big stack.  I figure my luck has to turn soon and I'll start getting some big cards but it never happens.  Play starts out pretty tight and I should have jumped in here to steal some pots.  I got a few but I could have been more active.  Eventually blinds are getting harsh.  I raise in mid position with A7.  Everyone folds to the big blind who pushes in and has me covered.  I have enough chips in there that I figure I have to call hoping he has KQ.  He has KK.  Everyone gets that hand but me.  He flops a king and I get back door straight and flush draws which get better on the turn but I get nothing on the river and am out 8th.  PQ hangs in and ends up making the money in 5th.  Drinking gal pisses away all her chips and is bubble gal in 6th. 

Wrapping it up, I am satisfied.  I had no cards, took mostly good shots to chip up.  Played a bit too tentative early at the final table when I could have chipped up some.  Not happy about that.  But otherwise I felt pretty good.  PQ was happy to hit the money.  It was a semi successful tourney, would have been better if we both made it but still not bad.  Next time with a few cards, I'll take the damn thing down.  Well enough about me.  Hope everyone is having a good weekend.  God the Bucs are playing bad football right now.  This team will improve in the second half of the year I think but the linemen are so young they are getting beat up on in the trenches right now.  No playoffs for them I think, be a good year to hit 9-7.   Stay thirsty my friends.  I sure am.

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Time to eat some crow.  The Bucs/Vikings game just ended.  The Buccaneers went into the locker room at halftime down 17-0 and looking like a beaten team.  Peterson ran all over them, the Vikes lines were beating the tar out of them, and they just looked BAD.  Josh Freeman went into a phone booth outside the dressing room, turned into Superman, and led the team down to a TD on their first possession.  Then a gutsy onside kick call gets them the ball back and even though Superman throws a pick in the end zone, the team buckles down, stops the Vikes again, and gets the ball back.  A TD is nullified by an illegal shift penalty and they have to settle for a field goal but they dominate the entire second half and score the winning TD with a minute left.  Viking fans were VERY unhappy.  I heard a lot of cheers for the Bucs up there as well.  Surprising.  I'll take my crow lightly breaded and broiled with some fava beans and a nice chianti. 

Saturday Morning Quickie

Gotta ref early today at 11am so I only have time for a quickie today.  Figured on putting a few short term investment choices out there so I can embarass myself again.  Lately I'm lucky to pick one right.  I am in a dead pool at work where I somehow made it through a treacherous week 1 (barely) and this week's pick is the NY Jets.  I hate the Jetskis but they shouldn't have any problem winning this week. 

My college picks for today are

Washington St +5 over San Diego St
Army +6 over Northwestern
Navy +16.5 over South Carolina
Tennessee +9.5 over Florida
Oklahoma -3 over Florida St.

I had a game Thursday night.  That was a busy game, a lot of scoring and we were shorthanded as one of the refs was removed from the game.  I don't know what happened there but I'm not happy doing games short handed, especially since we have plenty of refs.  We did a lot of running that day and I was pretty tired when it was over.  But I've had plenty of time to rest and only 2 games today so all should be well.  No rain it looks like either.  About time I stop refereeing in quagmires. 

Rays lost a disappointing game last night, one they could have won.  They lose one of the next 2, I think their shot is over but I still think the Red Sox have their work cut out for them too.  They are not the same team that was ripping through the AL all summer long.   Beckett was decent last night but not dominating.  They need him to be a lot better than that to make it to the post season never mind going somewhere.  Still an interesting end of the season coming up.   Well gotta go get ready.  With a bit of luck I'll be playing some poker tonight.  It's been a while.  Till then, stay lucky.

Are we gripping yet???

Boston fans are annoying.  Often times very annoying.  It didn't used to be that way.  After all, prior to 2000 there were no recent sports memories for Boston fans to be all that proud about.  They had endured a stretch from the last Celtic championship in 1986 to the 2002 Patriots before a world championship was won in Boston.  And the Red Sox, who have always been the most popular team in Boston, hadn't won a World Series in over 80 years.  Red Sox fans had endured Pesky's hesitation, Armbrister's Interference, Buckners Legs, and enough Curse of the Bambino to choke a horse.   And worst of all had to be Bucky  Dent and the 1 game playoff in 1978.  Ask any Red Sox fan around my age and he or she will probably call him Bucky Bleeping Dent. 

The Sox started out hot that year with a veteran lineup who had just missed winning it all in 1975.  Their biggest rival the Yankees started poorly and after the All Star break the Sox were sitting on a 14 game lead.  People in Boston were talking World Series again.  Then the roof caved in.  The Yankees got hot.  The Sox got cold.  NY came to Boston in early September still down 4 games and swept the 4 game series outscoring the Sox 42-9!  Red Sox fans were freaking out.   A week later NY was 3 games ahead after taking 2 more from the Sox.  But Boston sucked it up and went on their own run to tie the Yanks at the end of the season and force a 1 game playoff in Fenway Park for the AL East crown.  People forget today that Boston had to go 12-2 to make up 3.5 games against the Yanks in the last few weeks of the season.  NY didn't give it to them going 8-5 and winning 6 of the last 7 games but Boston went 7-0 down the stretch to tie the season up.  Only to lose the playoff game, at home, when Bucky Dent and his 5 home runs a year put one over the Green Monstah with 2 on.  I felt for Red Sox fans, I really did.  Hell I used to be one.  Was at work listening to the playoff game on the radio when Dent hit it out.  I still hate the Yankmees.  Always will.

Which brings me to my point.  Red Sox fans in their 20s and 30s didn't live through all the heart ache of fans my age and older saw.  After the fantastic comeback against NY in 2004 and then finally winning a World Series then winning it again only 3 years later, along with the 3 Super Bowls the Patriots won, the Celtics winning the NBA championship, and even the usually underachieving Bruins winning the Stanley Cup this year, younger Red Sox fans have become about as obnoxious as Yankee fans.  The expectations that they are going to win it all and all of their (recent) championship history just brings out the worst in a lot of them.  And man did they get uppity.  Last year all I heard was "Better take your pictures of Carl Crawford in Rays gear now cuz next year he'll either be playing left field for us or the Yankees"  Which is why I am deriving so much joy from the September swoon the Sox are going through now.  When Boston came down here last weekend with a 6.5 game lead for the wild card and left with a 3.5 game lead, I just had to chuckle.  Even guffaw a time or 2.

Now many of the younger set are just shaking it off, saying they're not worried.  After all who do they have to fear on Tampa Bay?  They're just going through a little slump like they did at the  start of the season and they'll get untracked.  But you older folks, and you know who you are, you people are GRIPPING.  You remember Bill Buckner.  You remember Bucky Dent.  You remember how every break seemed to go against you when you really needed one.  I know you're feeling it, I have proof.  The Boston Globe has a poll out now.  See the results here.  Almost 70% are extremely worried and only 6% are not worried at all.  Or check out this blog.  He doesn't seem very concerned does he? 

These younger folks, they may not believe it, but they're hearing it from you.  And finally its starting to mess with their minds a little.  Now all we need is for the Sox to totally collapse and their education will be complete.  They will be ready to join you on the Dark Side.  I will be sitting in my recliner rubbing my hands together like Emperor Palpatine laughing my evil dark side laugh. 

The Sox are suffering one of the curses of a veteran team, injuries.  Even though they aren't a particularly old team, many of them are not spring chickens anymore.  And the people that are out right now are the ones you cannot replace.  Youkilis, Bedard, Lowrie and most importantly Beckett are all banged up.  Youkilis is important to the team but losing Beckett is killing the Sox.  He does what no one else on the team seems able to do, he stops losing streaks.   As good as Lester is supposed to be, he couldn't get it done when they needed him to.  And right now, they need someone to step up and take control. 

Sports like baseball and golf that demand a high level of skill are the ones that also have a high mental aspect as well.  Confidence plays a crucial role in winning and losing.  When you are playing well and your confidence is high, you believe you'll win and you usually do.  When you're confidence is not high, a bad break, a bad call, anything can set the downward spiral going and before you know it you've lost another game.  A lot like poker when you think about it.  Lately the Sox have been living this.  If they don't get out of it soon, it'll be too late.  The Rays went through this in July and early August and only recently have really put it together but now they are loose, they feel good and most of all, their best players are all healthy.  The Beantown natives are getting restless.

My thoughts, 3 games are still a lot to make up in a short amount of time.  After playing Baltimore, the Rays go up to Boston - not the house of horrors Seattle and Oakland often are for them as they are 4-1 there this year - but still they have to go there, then NY then come home to play a good Toronto team and finish with the Yankees.  A very hard finish for them.  If they make the playoffs, they won't have backed in.  So you have to give the edge to the Sox who have 7 more games with Baltimore after the Rays series this weekend.  They do have a series with the Yanks as well and you know NY would love nothing more than to knock out the Sox.  Obnoxious Yankee fans live for those moments.

Personally, I still don't think the Rays get there but the Sox better watch out anyway. If Beckett doesn't get healthy, they could beat out the Rays and still not make it when the Angels sneak into the wild card.  They are also playing good ball now and even though they trail Boston by 5.5, it's not out of the question.  Improbable, yes but not impossible.  I know I'll be rooting for the Rays until the bitter end.  Considering how much I didn't expect the Rays to contend this year, especially after the Manny disaster and Longo's early injury, I have to say I am impressed.  The starting pitchers except for Price, have been better than expected, the relievers have somehow gotten it done with cast offs and nobodies, and the hitting has wavered between timely and putrid, lately timely.  They've done it with good starting pitching and smoke and mirrors but they're doing it.  What a way to finish the season.  If only the Yankees could go on a 15 game losing streak, this would truly be a season to remember. 

Taking a beating

I'm a bit tired and a bit sore today.  Feels like I've been through a mugging or maybe reffed a few football games.  Which is what I did.  And I feel it.  It started Wednesday night when I went to Shorecrest (a rather expensive private school with some nice facilities) to referee an intrasquad game they were playing called the Green/Gold game.  Much to my surprise, the head ref for the game was Jayme, the guy who had gotten into that big melee the weekend before in Sarasota.  I thought he wasn't in our association anymore as I hadn't seen him at any meetings but it turns out he just hadn't gone to any.  On Saturdays, he refs for another association but he still doesn high school games for us. 

Jayme was ok but pretty sore.  His shoulder is pretty messed up from the tackle and the only reason he isn't wearing a sling for his arm is because he told the doctor he wouldn't.  His left arm is almost useless right now and I heard him gasp when a kid bumped into him on the left side during the game.  But other than that he is the same irrepressible guy who just loves to referee and we had a good time at Shorecrest.  The weather was a little cooler than normal as it was cloudy with a little drizzle most of the game.  It was a nice night to ref for the most part. 

Thursday night I had to do another game at Pinellas Park.  It was a really nice night, perfect for football here.  About 10 degrees cooler than normal.  The field unfortunately was not in great shape.  We've had a lot of rain lately and a lot of the ball fields are pretty wet.  Many of them don't drain too well and you add in a few practices and games on a wet field and they get pretty torn up.  I would charitably call this field sloppy.  We didn't have any rain Thursday night but this field just didn't drain well.

On the first scrimmage play, a kid runs into me from behind.  That hurt a little.  Welcome to the game ref.  During the game it happened another 2 or 3 times.  Needless to say I was a little sore after that game.  It was a good game though.  The visitors (Osceola) matched up with Pinellas Park pretty well.  We were almost to half time and it was still a scoreless game.  The last play of the half the Osceola quarterback hits a receiver cutting deep across the middle of the field.  He gets away from his defender and it looks like a sure TD for them (good because I really prefer not to go to overtime) but a defender who was covering another receiver runs him down and swats the ball out of his hands on the 2 yard line.  The defender goes for the ball and knocks it into the end zone where it rolls toward the back line.  Another Osceola player dives for the ball in the end zone but by the time he gets it, he and the ball have slid across the end line and out of bounds.  So we are still 0-0 at the half. 

In the third quarter the Osceola quarterback fumbles the snap and it gets kicked around a little.  I'm trying to move forward to cover the fumble and get run into by 2 different players.  Pinellas Park recovers around mid field and moves the ball downfield to score a little before the end of the 3rd.  Late in the 4th quarter Osceola moves downfield - with the help of a 15 yard penalty for a horse collar - and gets down inside the Park's 15 yard line.  The next play the complete a short pass to the 5.  They have second and 1 from the 5 and it looks like we might be heading to overtime but instead of running for the first down they tried a pass play.  The quarterback faded back, got pressured by 2 guys and fumbled when he tried to pass.  Pinellas park recovered and that was the ball game.  It was a good game outside of the field conditions and the guys constantly running into me.  But it was fun. 

The next day I woke up sore a bit and tired but managed to autopilot my way to work.  I had the night off from football and figured to recover a little.  Or so I thought.  I get a call from one of the referees while I'm at work and he asks if I knew I was working the clock for him that night.  I looked at the schedule and saw the guy who schedules games for us had added me to this game on the night before.  Not even a call.  Of course maybe he called the head ref and had him call me.  I don't know but I was none too pleased.  Still I knew most of this crew pretty well so I opted to do the game.  I hadn't blocked off the day on my schedule so they can give me a game at that point, still I'd like a call if it's gonna be last minute.  So after work Friday I went home and gathered my referee gear and went back to Shorecrest again.  Good thing the game was there and not one of schools thats far away from my work.  I had time enough to head home and change up and head over there. 

The game was a blowout and for me it was no big deal.  When I am the clock operator/score keeper, my main objective is to be invisible.  As long as I don't attract any attention to the clock for some reason, I've done my job.  I managed to not screw up anywhere, we made it through the game, and I booked it home.  I had 2 games to work the clock and 3 on the field Saturday and I definitely wanted to get a decent night of sleep.

Saturday dawned cloudy and rainy.  My first game wasn't until 2 and rain is no problem except for sloppy conditions but rain here usually means thunderstorms and we can't play in that.  About 11:30 it started pouring here at my house.   Lightning, thunder, the whole works.  Not good.  I checked the weather radar and though it was raining here, the Azalea field was about 6-7 miles south of my home and it wasn't raining there.  But I could see it was going to hit there a bit later as the line of storms was sliding in from the west and the line went northeast to southwest so it was goinna push in there in the next hour or so.  Hopefully without all the lightning and thunder I was getting.

When I got to the field I could see they were behind.  It was half time when I stepped into the field complex and I was hoping it was half time of the last game before I started working.  I talked to the refs and they said they had to delay an earlier game for 45 minutes.  So they weren't in bad shape, maybe 20-30 minutes behind.  Fortunately the game turned into a blowout in the second half and they were able to go to a running clock.  In the youth league, if one team is ahead by 30 or more in the second half we go to a running clock to get the game over faster and avoid the games getting too far out of hand.  So they finished up about 15 minutes late on the game.

The field was a mess.  The home team sideline was all muddy between the 30 yard lines and the field was really muddy near that sideline.  The far sideline was not too bad but I could see muddy areas in the middle of the field and down in one end zone.  We got started and and it was cloudy and warm but not hot and it looked like the rain was done for the time being.  As the game went on the clouds started to dissipate and the sun peeked out.  By the time my second game on the clock started the sun was fully out and it was getting warm.  It was drying out the field a little and I was hoping by the time I got out there it would be decent.  The first game was a blowout so we went to a running clock and the game ended only about 10 minutes late.  The second game was also a blowout (Azalea usually has pretty good teams and Seminole usually doesn't) so we got to a running clock late in the third quarter and that game ended almost on time. 

I went down from the press box for my first of three games on the field.  It was really warm by then, and the humidity from the field drying under us was really high.  Ed the head ref is a guy I worked with on Thursday and have worked with plenty of times.  We get along well and have some fun while we're out there.  One of the linesmen was Sean, a guy who started when I did so we know each other pretty well and have worked together in youth games quite a bit, though not high school as both work as umpires there.  The field had dried out a little and some parts were close to normal.  Some parts were a quagmire however and the area from the 20 yard line into the end zone on one end were pretty bad.  Near the 50 yard line on the home team side was practically a quagmire.  I told Ed if he heard me yell I was sinking there to throw me a line or even a snake. 

First game was 9-10 year olds and these 2 teams were very closely matched.  I thought Azalea was a little better but not by much.  Neither team was able to mount much of an offensive threat as the defenses really dominated.  Azalea was a bit surprised by that as they expected to dominate but both teams were close to equal and both worked hard.   We ended 0-0 after 4 quarters and had to play one overtime period.  If we're still tied after that it's a tie game.  We play a modified Kansas tie break in high school and youth football.  One team gets 4 shots from the 10 yard line and then the other team does and whoever is leading wins.  Seminole got the ball first and on the second play a big hole opened and the kid went in for the TD.  Azalea got close, down to the 5 on their chance but couldn't punch it in and Seminole won.

Next game is the varsity 11-12 year olds.  Seminole had 3 JV teams for this level last year and I had heard they were pretty good this year.  Azalea is always very good and hadn't lost a game at this level in a couple of years so they were really primed to play.  Ex Buc Mike Alstott has a boy playing for the Seminole squad and he coaches them.  I did a number of their games last year when he was on the JV team and his dad coached then as well.  My wife has always been a huge stalker, secret lover fan of his.  He's a nice guy though sometimes he doesn't understand there is a difference between NFL and high school rules.  We had an offsides on a kickoff which in the NFL is just a flag and play on and let's see what happens.  In high school an offsides penalty kills the play right then.  It was a bad kickoff by Azalea and they would have gotten the ball in great field position but we had to call it back and replay it. 

A little later in the game there was an injury and Mike came out to check on his kid.  He then went toward his team huddle which is a no-no as high school rules prohibit coaches going to the huddle for an injury time out.   We warned him he couldn't do it and he came by and said he was sorry, he didn't know that rule.  I told him it was ok, we'd cut him some slack and he pats me on the chest on his way by.  After the game, they got beat like 25-6, I told him they played hard and good luck and he pats my shoulder and thanked me on the way by.  When I got home I mentioned I had run into her not so secret crush and he had touched my shirt twice.  She swore she would never wash it and even put it on her facebook page. 

During the second game my lower back started getting really tight and painful from a shot I took there in the first game.  The president of the Azalea association saw I wasn't doing well and asked me about it and I told her what was up so she got me some ibuprofen which really saved my ass.  I hadn't eaten anything since that morning so taking them on an empty stomach after running around out there almost made me vomit but when the kicked in, my back eased up and I was fine until the end of the last game.

The last game was a pretty good game.  Seminole came out and played hard nosed football and scored first.  They really dominated a good part of the first half and went into the half even at 6.  Second half was a different story though and Azalea put up a few TDs to take the game but both teams played pretty well.  I was glad to be done though.  I was hot, sweaty as hell, muddy, dirty, and still in some pain.  I got home about 10:30, ate a bite and talked to the PQ for a bit.  We were both beat and she went to bed while I hit the showers.  When I got done I headed to be but I was too hot after taking a long warm shower.  So I went back to the living room and put the ceiling fan on above me while I reclined for a bit.  I woke up in bed this morning but I don't remember leaving the recliner at some point last night.  Guess I was pretty tired.  Used some of my football earnings and took the PQ out to breakfast this morning. 

Even though the NFL started on Thursday - what a barn burner offensive game that was - today is when it really feels like the season starts.  Since everyone else knows who is gonna win I figure I oughtta take a few guesses myself.  Here goes

I like Tampa Bay -1.5 over Detroit.  Every year lately they hype up Detroit as the next great team but they still have some major holes though they also have some great players.  The Bucs feel they owe the Lions after last year.  TB by 3

I'll take Philly -3.5 over St Louis.  I like Sam Bradford.  A lot.  I thought he was too brittle coming out of college but he proved me wrong last year.  He has some weapons though he needs more.  Philly has all the weapons and Vick has another year to get used to them.  Philly by 10

Tennessee -1 over Jacksonville.  I was surprised Jax dumped David Garrard but they've proven they aren't married to any QB and as long as they have MJB they will run.  Tennessee gave Chris Johnson a new contract and dumped Vince Young.  They did bring in   dinosaur veteran Matt Hasslebeck and while he's old he still knows how to QB.  I'll take Hasselbeck, Johnson, and psycho Kenny Britt over MJD and a cast of thousands.  Tenn by 7

Arizona -7 over Carolina.  I just can't see a decent Arizona team not spanking Carolina today.  Unless they forget that Cam Newton can run like the wind and let him get away enough to make big plays.  I'll go with Kolb, Fitzgerald and some clown named Beanie over Cam Newton, Deangelo Williams, and teammate beater Steve Smith.  Arizona by 14

Seattle +6 over San Fran.  Seattle is starting Tavaris Jackson at QB and I'm taking them?  Yes because Jackson won't help Seattle but he won't kill them either.  Alex Smith is starting for San Fran.  He might kill them.  Everytime I'm ready to give Smith a break, he plays a Rex Grossman game (more on this in a minute) and kills his own team.  He'll probably throw for 300 plus today and they'll win by 20 but at some point he'll pull a Rexy and kill his own team.

I hate Rex Grossman.  At least in fantasy and betting terms I do.  I still kind of like him since he was a UF Gator but Rex killed me one week in Fantasy Football.  I was winning my game by 2 points and had Rex going for me Monday night.  My opponent had nobody else to play so I basically have it won.  Until Rex got under center.  In a little over one quarter Rex managed to lose a fumble, get intercepted, get hurt tackling the returner and be knocked out of the game.  He throws up a -3 and I lose my game.  I hate Rex Grossman.  He's starting for Washington today.  Ladies and gentlemen, your 2011 Washington Redskins. 

Judging from my college picks this week, you may not want to take my picks to heart.  I was right with Auburn over Miss St and TCU over Air Force but I blew it with Duke +22 vs Stanford and ND over Michigan.  How does Notre Dame lose that game.  Knute Rockne must have spun in his grave. Maybe he's still spinning.  First the blow a 24-7 lead late in the 3rd quarter then they make a great comeback in the last minute to score a TD to take the lead again only to let a bad QB take his team down and score in less than 30 seconds.  Having said all that, what a finish to that game.  That may have been the most exciting last quarter of football I've seen ever.  I gotta give it to Michigan, they fought through and never gave up and won a game they shouldn't have.  Still the ugliest helmets in football.  And my word were they lucky.  The QB was from the Brett Favre school.  Chuck it up in the air and maybe good things will happen.  And in the last quarter they did, in spades.  He didn't care his receiver was double covered or more, he was gonna throw it there and that's it.  He can run like the wind but throwing is not his best point but on this night it worked and boy it was exciting.

Well enough for now.  I need a nap.  Have a good afternoon everyone pick better than me.  And don't get in the way of blitzing linebackers or charging running backs. 

Bad news all around

Late last night the sad news came out that former Tampa Bay Buc and NFL Hall of Famer Lee Roy Selmon had been taken to the hospital after a massive stroke.  Some reports were even saying he had died while others only said he was in the hospital.  News of his death were apparently premature but outside of that the news has not been very good.  His brother was quoted as saying there was only a 20% chance of recovery.  Lee Roy is 56 years old.

I never saw him play in person as he retired a few years before I moved here due to back trouble but I remember what a defensive force he was first at the Univ of Oklahome then as the only star for the expansion Bucs.  He took them from 0-26 to the NFC championship game in just a few years.  But more than his football prowess, Lee Roy was known for the man he was.  Though he grew up in the small town of Eufala, Oklahoma, he adopted the Tampa Bay area as his home and retired here.  He was instrumental in helping the Univ of South Florida start their football program as the assistant athletic director then becoming the AD of the school in 2001.  He took them from a fledling program to membership in the Big East conference where they are today. 

As great as his accomplishments have been, you never heard it from him.  He was always a humble man, grateful for what he had achieved solely through hard work and dedication.  A quiet and thoughtful man who never gave offense but a fierce competitor on the field.  After retiring he worked in banking until USF called and he joined their athletic department.  He gave so much to the community they even changed the name of the Crosstown Expressway to the Lee Roy Selmon Expressway.   Stress led to his retirement from the AD position but he still maintained strong ties to the university as president of the USF Foundation Partnership for Athletics.  Everyone who knew him commented on how gentle and kind he was away from the football field.  Though reports now say he is responding to family he is still in critical condition.  Please keep him in your thoughts and prayers.

This week also brought news of a different sort, and again not the good kind.  You may have seen a story this past week about a referee who was attacked in Sarasota during a football game.  Not a good situation.  Of course being near to the action, I have followed the story very closely.  If you haven't seen the video yet, you can see it here.   The referee at a youth game last Saturday was attacked by some coaches of one of the teams playing.  When this all started, one of the players actually grabbed the ref and flattened him.  Reports since then have stated the ref was ok and that he had a broken shoulder.  He had a press conference yesterday and didn't appear to be injured.

I've worked with the ref before, he used to be in my association.  Jayme is a good guy and a pretty sharp ref though he has a low tolerance for bullshit and he doesn't put up with much talk from coaches.  According to all I can gather, Jayme threw one of the coaches out after he disputed a call.  The call was actually against the other team.  After he tossed the coach, the coach threw a water bottle at him and came toward him.  And Jayme unloaded on the guy.  And then the brawl started.  And it got ugly.  

Right now 3 coaches and the player who tackled him are being charged.  About 5 years ago, Florida passed a law changing battery on a referee to a felony offense which means these guys are all in some serious trouble.  According to the Sheriff's office, though Jayme took the first swing, he was allowed to defend himself and that guy throwing the water bottle then coming toward him constituted a threat.

Anyway, it was bad. No one looks good in a situation like that.  And it got pretty dangerous.  I've never been in a situation that bad but I can see how it gets that way sometimes.  Just thankful I wasn't in that one. 

Work was another tough slog this week.  A lot of people took time off, we still have people testing the new stuff so they aren't involved with the daily work.  Not that big an issue as the amount of new work has been doable with a shorter staff BUT the daily reports are unchanged and there are a limited number of people to handle them.  That is an issue.  Everyday a number of reports are assigned to us.  Since many of the people who handle these reports are in testing, there are a limited number of people who can do the reports.  We are basically shuffling these reports between us every week.  So instead of doing a certain report for 1 week out of every 5 or 6, I'm doing it every other week.  And the next week I'm doing other reports.  Which takes time away from doing everything else.  It gets a bit annoying, even more so when someone else is out and I have to cover another report on that day.  But enough of that crap. 

This week with end of month, we had a number of things we had to knock out by the end of Wednesday.  Then on Thursday we had statement Q&A.  We produce a bunch of statements right after the month ends to ensure there are no systematic problems that will cause a big issues.  I had that duty this month which meant a few more hours of OT this week as well.  I can use the cash so you get no argument from me but it was a tiring week.  But now I have a long weekend to recover.  I do have a wedding to attend on Sunday for my nephew.  That should prove interesting.  Other than that I have no real plans as I have no football this weekend.  Next week should prove a different story.  Well enough about me.  Next weekend I might even get some poker in.  Till then, stay lucky you nuts.

I wonder if that's what he thought

My parents both died fairly early in my life.  My mother when I was a senior in college and my father a few years later.  They never got to meet my wife, hell I didn't know her when my mother died and we were had recently started dating when my father died.  I always thought my father was one of the smartest people I knew, especially about history.  But about a lot of other things too.

I was thinking while in the shower - where I often do my best thinking it seems - and wondering what my kids thought of me.  Do they think I'm as full of it as I often do?  Or do I appear to know all (or most of)  the answers like my father seemed to me.  I sure don't feel like I know much of anything when you come right down to it.  A lot of times I still think I'm a young man, searching for a lot of the right answers.  My dad was 55 when he died.  He seemed so wise.  What did he think when we asked him for advice?  So many times  I wish I could call my mom or dad and ask them about something.  So many times I wish they had met my wife and kids.  I know looking backwards prevents you from looking forwards, but I'm allowed to wish occasionally aren't I?

I guess the recent hurricane that headed up north brought a lot of this up for me.  When I was a kid I would often read these pictorial magazines the Providence Journal put out for after the 1938 hurricane and Hurricane Carol in 1954.  Pictures of flooding and damage during the storms and pictures of the aftermath at my grandparent's place.  They lived in a triple decker - a 3 story home where each floor was a separate apartment, very popular in the Providence, Boston, Worcestor area - in Providence where they had moved when my dad was 2 in 1931.  My grandfather had fought some in WW1 and then had been stationed in Cuba.  While there he had seen a hurricane up close so he had some idea what was happening when it hit.  Well when the eye of the hurricane came over, a number of people thought the storm was over and went outside.  My dad ran out onto the porch to see the mess from the storm but my grandfather knew better and went out there and got him back inside.  Just in a nick of time as it turned out because when the eye passed and the winds howled from the other direction, the old tree next to the house came crashing down and wiped out the porches on all 3 floors on the way down. 

I told some stories from my dad's childhood to my kids while they were growing up but I sure wish my father and mother could have told them the stories instead. 

I was watching a program on tv tonight called Flightmares.  Not a show to watch if you're scared of flying, believe me.  And lets just say I'm not the best flyer around.  Anyway the first story being told is by a survivor of Delta flight 191 into Dallas in 1985.  He was talking about being on the flight, he was assigned to row 15 but as he was a smoker, he asked for a seat in the back where the smokers section was.  Saved his life as all 4 people in row 15 died.  I remember this day well.  It was a Friday in August which can be a busy time for thunderstorms in Texas.  My wife wanted us to meet for dinner after work with her sister at the Black Eyed Pea in Irving, just east of the airport.  At this time, we lived on the west side of DFW airport but worked east of the airport.  So about 5:30 we all got together and sat down to dinner.  It was just starting to rain and the skies were looking pretty ominous. 

As we got served, the skies opened and an intense thunderstorm broke out.  A lot of thunder and lightning, some pretty close by.  A little after 6 we heard this massive BOOM.  Sounded like a lightning strike in the parking lot outside the restaurant.  But we didn't think too much of it and finished our dinner.  About 6:30 we finished dinner and started heading home.  When we got outside, the skies had cleared off and as we looked to the west we could see a column of smoke by the airport and hear sirens all around us.  We headed hom past the north side of the airport as that was where the activity was.   When we got to the north end of the field we could see a plane in pieces in the grass between the runway and highway.  The fence around the airport was flattened and a big water tank had a massive dent in the side.  The tail, scorched but mostly intact,  was near the water tower but pieces of plane were laying a lot further away in the airport. It was a very sobering sight. 

Apparently a microburst - a severe downdraft in many thunderstorms - had caught the jet while landing, forcing it to the ground.  It had hit a field a little north of Highway 114 in front of the airport, bounced back in the air a little then came down crossing the highway crushing a couple of cars and killing a driver on his birthday.  An engine was torn off when it hit a lightpole by the highway which started a fire on the wing.  It then skidded onto the airport grass.  If the water tanks weren't there just inside the fence, the plane probably skids to a stop without too much more damage though there's still a fire to contend with.  But they were there and the left wing smashed into the front tank causing the plane to basically disintegrate.  Before the plane hit the tanks, the tail section had separated from the plane.  Most of the survivors were in that section. 126 of 152 passengers diend as well as 8 of the 11 crew members.

The tail section remained there in the airport grass for at least a week or 2 and that dent in the tank wasn't repaired for quite some time.  I remember seeing it laying there as I went past on my way to and from work.  I drove that route north of the airport to work and back most days as I worked northeast of the airport in Farmers Branch.  My wife worked  southeast of the airport so she usually went on Highway 183 south of the airport.  If we hadn't met up for dinner that night, it's quite possible I would have been over on 114 in front of the airport when the plane crashed.  I'm glad I wasn't.  Everytime I fly, especially when we land, flight 191 comes to mind at some point.  I don't fly too often. 

A little this and that

Sorry about the dearth of posts and posting material, I just haven't had much to talk about.  Work and the stock market have been my main focus lately, I've been too broke to play poker much except a little online and y'all don't want to hear about that anyway as it's been a series of AA losing to AK off due to a four flush etc.  Everyday I when I get home from work the last thing I want to do is think of a post and write it up.  I don't even have a title for this post, hopefully I'll think of one before the end of writing this one.  I have kept up on my various blog readings and even commented on a few of them.  You lucky souls know who you are. 

Which gets me to the first thing I wanted to mention.  Texting, twitter and the like are causing the death of English as we know it.  Now don't get me wrong, I have no problem with the occasional common abbreviation in a post.  I've used a few myself.  And I also understand that some people use twitter and such alot and it carries over.  But people if you're writing a blog post, try to at least write in a recognized language.  The Poker Grump posted a portion of a blog post from some guy named Tony TBC and when I tried to read the post I had to stop and reread twice just to understand what the guy was saying.  I'm not gonna repost it here nor will I debate the merits of pushing KK into an Ace high flop, but really guys, are we that text and twitter dependent that we can't blog our thoughts in complete sentences?  Far be it from me to be the arbiter of blogging but reading blog posts like that is too hard.  Like reading them in French or Spanish.  I could do that but why, it would take me too long to figure out what the guy is saying.  Unless this guy is the twitter version of e e cummings, I don't get it.  And I really don't want to feel like I'm reading the mind of a guy tweaking on meth. 

After my last post, I felt pretty smart when I went into work the next Monday to see a number of stocks I talked about go up on great news.  National Oilwell Varco (NOV) announced a contract with Brazilian oil giant PBR for $1.5 billion and the stock went up over $3 that day.  Transocean (RIG)announced a merger with Aker Drilling of Norway and was up about $2.  I had talked to my wife that Research in Motion (symbol RIMM - makers of Blackberry phones) needed to think about maybe merging with either Nokia or Motorola Mobility as they are just getting crushed by the both Apple's Iphones and the Android based phones from HTC, Samsung, etc.  I had predicted a few months before that RIMM would see $30/share long before $45/share again.  This was when RIMM was over $38.  RIMM was down under $25 after that.  Monday morning Google announces a merger with Motorola.  I felt so smart and also soooo dumb for not getting any of these stocks before this happened.

Fortunately the market felt my pain.  Down a number of times since then.  RIG was up, down, down some more and I got to pull the trigger on it at $50.60 per share.  Money in the bank I hope.  RIG closed at $53.12 so I'm up about 5% so far.  Oil is going to be tricky to play in the near term I think.  With Libya possibly coming back into production and oil already down from it's summer highs by a fair amount I think the short term trend for oil is down.  If Libya starts producing again.  Not a bad thing by and large as the rest of the economy should do better with lower oil prices.  So now may not be the best time to pick an oil retailer like Exxon Mobil (soon though if the price heads lower) nor to pick a more marginal service company like say Weatherford International.  But NOV and RIG are among the tops in services.  And the companies that order from them think in much longer time frames than 6 months or a year.  Oil fields need to be developed and the lag time on large equipment orders means companies are not going to want to cancel an order and go to the back of the line when oil prices take a down turn. 

Oil prices are still going back up, lower prices now mean people have more to spend on other things besides gas for the cars,  world economies improve,  companies hire more, demand goes up, oil consumption goes back up, oil prices go back up.  I haven't seen too many dinosaurs lately so it's doubtful oil is being created at a rate fast enough to replace what we're using.  Oil prices may go down but unless some new cheap form of energy is presented to us that achieves world wide acceptance quickly, the price of oil is going back up again.  Anyone ready for "To Serve Man"?  There won't be an oil price collapse a la the 1980s, not unless a world wide depression happens soon.   Just don't see that, at least not yet. 

I was kicking myself a little bit after selling some of my holdings in AUY and AUQ and seeing them both go up another $1 per share but then gold prices went through a bit of consolidation and fell almost 200 an ounce which caused all the gold miners to go down with them.  So I don't feel as bad.  Unfortunately they didn't go down enough for me to rebuy and they went up strong the last 2 days.  So I'm glad I bought RIG instead. 

Did anyone catch the finals of American Ninja Warrior on NBC last weekend?  I was surprised to see it on national television but it goes to show how much more mainstream Ninja Warrior has become.  It apparently got good ratings for a Sunday night in the summer show.  I've been watching the original Ninja Warrior for years and always enjoy new ones whenever they come on.  Fascinating to see these guys, some just regular no name people who want to compete in this.  One guy is in the military and has been competing on his vacation for the last few years.  This year he finally made it and got to go to Japan.  Did pretty well there too.  Unfortunately none of the guys went all the way but one got close.  It's just so hard to complete stage 3.  I can't wait for the new Japanese episodes to air on G4TV.

I'm currently watching some High School football on tv while I write.  South Panola Mississippi vs Hoover Alabama.  Hoover is a perennial football power in Alabama and is often nationally ranked by USA Today.  South Panola is nationally ranked this year while Hoover isn't (they are 15th in the southeast rankings) but Hoover is winning right now 3-0.  ESPN is showing a bunch of high school games pitting top programs from different states against each other and sometimes in state rivals against each other.  Last night Armwood HS of Tampa, usually a state powerhouse and ranked 9th nationally this year went to Vegas (without me) and took down Bishop Gorman who was ranked 11th nationally.  I heard on the radio that some of the offshore betting sites were offering lines on these games and Armwood was a 7.5 point dog.  But they've played in few of these games on ESPN before and they took the win.  Looks a bit hot there in Alabama for these games.  They are playing at Hoover who has a pretty big stadium apparently and they just played another game before this one there as well.  I enjoy the games and also watch the refs to see if I can see what they see. 

Wow Hoover has taken the ball all the way from inside their 5 down to Panola's 5.  Almost got to see the Umpire run over on that last play.  Hoover has been moving the ball on a few quick slant passes and they just faked a pass, the umpire stepped up to cover the line of scrimmage and the QB ran into the hole his line created and almost creamed the umpire as did one of the guys chasing him.  That's what I fear most as an umpire.  It's often not the running back, who can see you and avoid you, but the guys chasing him.  They are focused on the runner and might see you at the last second when the runner cuts sharply and they can't.  Or they hit the runner into you and everyone goes down in a heap.  They got pads, I don't.  The other thing that worries me is having someone get blocked into my legs, especially from behind.  That happened to me in one game.  A running play went to my right.  I turned to follow the play and a guy behind me got blocked and fell right across the back of my legs.  At the time my left knee had a partially torn ACL and I spin wrong or plant it sometimes and have it start to buckle.  So as soon as I felt this guy hit my legs I thought "Oh shit there goes the knee."  I didn't feel any pain though when he rolled off.  The head ref stops the game and comes running over as I got up rather shakily and tested my knees.  Surprisingly there wasn't any damage.  I got lucky.  I've seen a few refs not get so lucky, one of them had to go to the hospital. 

Last weekend I went down to Manatee County to do a scrimmage for Bradenton Bayshore high school.  The coach asked for us to send down some refs so he could run scrimmages with his 1st and 2nd teams and get his players ready to work refereed games.  We didn't call it really tight but called all the obvious stuff.  It was HOT even though we started in the morning.  Of course August in Florida is not known as a particularly cool month.  No major issues, though the play was a bit rough and out of sync sometimes but better than I expected.  I banged one kid for a couple of holding calls as he kept getting his hands outside the defender's frame and holding him while blocking.  But no one ran me over, only one play got a little antsy and afterward the coach asked us all to talk to the team and let them know what we saw, which was good to let the kids know what we are looking for and where they need to improve. 

Finally I want to comment on women in poker.  Josie had a post about her recent experiences at Foxwoods and what she had to deal with in her tourney.  I know the Poker Queen has had moments in tourneys as well.  She was surprised when I told her that some guys feel threatened by a woman at the poker table.  Some just cannot deal with losing to a woman and so when they see a woman doing well, they will do anything to get rid of her.  Poker also has its share of angle shooters and it seems Josie ran across one.  The one thing I can tell Josie is to ignore these guys and make them pay at some point.  But don't go out of your way to do that.  You play your normal game, you make them face you when you're comfortable, and you take them out.  I know the wife has been last woman left in a number of tourneys and it seems all the guys are trying to take her out.  It's not all of them I know but all it takes is a couple who always raise your blinds and it feels like all of them are ganging up on you.  The second thing I would have told Josie is that anytime someone feels he needs to yell at you, you get the floor over there and get his ass warned.  And if the first guy you call over won't do it, keep calling guys over until you get someone over who will.  Abusing another player, and yelling is abuse, is not allowed at any decent place I've been to.  I've caught a couple of dealer mistakes myself so I know they happen.  That one was too late to correct by the time it happened if the floor wasn't willing to go to video.  I'd have been royally pissed if it had happened to me as well but short of taking the asshole outside and whipping his ass, hard to do when you're 5 foot nothing weighing a hundred and nothing and hanging with the best college football team in the land.  Oops, got distracted there.  Anyway, outside of being mad and frustrated, the only thing she could have done after that was to go to the floor and tell them she wanted them to review the video on that table and not let that dealer work anything until she got better training.  No consolation to her after the fact I'm sure.  I know one time I did have the Hard Rock go to video to correct an error but that was a table game so there wasn't a tourney clock or anything.

Well enough for now.   Maybe I should post more often so I can have fewer topics to post on at once.  Or maybe not.  Oh one last thing.  I hope all of you up in NY and New England are battening down the hatches for a little blow.  Irene should only be a category 1 when it hits but there will still be a lot of rain, a good bit of wind, some flooding, and the possibility of tornados to boot.  Nothing but fun there.  Everybody watch out.  Amazingly I have never been through a major hurricane even though I've lived in Florida for 24 years now.  Something about the currents and winds and the shape of the state here makes Tampa Bay an unlikely hurricane landfall.  Had a number come close and brush by to the west or hit south of here.  Charley in 2004 was supposed to hit directly on Tampa Bay but took a right turn and hit Ft Myers about 2 hours south of here.  Charley was a strong category 4 hurricane but not a big one in size so we got some wind and rain but nothing worse than tropical storm strength.  And that's what we usually get.  The last big hurricane that actually hit here was in 1921 if you can believe that.  Hell Rhode Island got lambasted in 1938 and 1954 (twice, one at low tide so not bad flooding) and 1985 was fairly strong as well.  Apparently there is more of a chance of being hit by a bad hurricane in New England than in Tampa.  Stay safe up there and stay lucky.

All this for 1.5%?

Sorry to be talking stocks again but really, what else has been happening this week of greater import?  I mean outside of the judge telling Casey Anthony "No darlin, being in jail does not count toward your probation and you're also not considered to be fulfilling your probation by staying up north and being waited on hand and foot by some Lightbulb guy in Illinois" there really wasn't a lot going on away from the markets.

The market got crushed on Monday losing over 600 points in the Dow.  Tuesday started well with the Dow going up 200 points in the morning prior to the Fed meeting.  After the Fed opened their mouth however, everyone changed their minds apparently and the market started tanking.  By 2:30 its down 200 points.  Seemed like people were expecting Big Ben Bernanke to come out and say something like he was gonna go to the Pres and get another round of Quantitative Easing going to "stimulate" the economy.  Didn't happen.  I think he knows what a hard sell that would be to the American public.  But Wall St has never seen a government handout it couldn't make money from and they were hoping.  Still once the impact of what the Fed talked about sunk in people started to realize the Fed just promised not to raise interest rates for 2 more years.  And they started buying.  And buying.  The market started shooting up and by 3:30 had gone up 300 points from the low and was +100.  But it didn't stop there.  It just kept going up and up.  By 4pm close the Dow was up over 400 points.  In the hour and a half before close it went up over 600 points. 

Wednesday, Mr Hyde returned.  The market started down and just got downer.   Every time I looked it was getting worse.  By lunch the Dow was down over 300 and shoing no signs of stopping.  I've got stocks losing money hand over fist on the down days, making some back on the good days then giving it all back plus some on the next bad day.  I'm kicking myself for not selling out of Sanofi Aventus when it reached 40 a few weeks back.  I was torn then and I'm still torn.  I really do believe this stock gets to 50 in the next 12 months if Europe doesn't completely implode.  If there's another flu scare this winter it could get there even faster as Sanofi makes something like 40 % of the flu vaccines in the world.  And as I sit the stock keeps falling.  I could have sold 2 weeks ago at 40 and bought back in at 32 this week.  But I digress.  While almost all my other stocks are tanking, my gold miners are making money.  The worse the carnage got on Wednesday, the higher gold went, breaking over 1800 and ounce.  I watched 2 of my stocks hitting new yearly highs and decided I'd be a fool not to capture some of that.  So I put in sell orders for both Yamana Gold who I have owned for the past 2+ years and for Aurico Gold who I've had about 6 months.  Sold half of my position in each stock for a very nice profit.  Now I have money to use for some buys if the market tanks again next week.

By the end of Wednesday, the Dow is down another 500+ points.  UGLY.   It's looking like a full blown bear market is coming into play.  Two out of 3 days of minus 500 points or more.  Not looking good at all.  Then Thursday comes along and the market gets into a buying spree.  All day long it goes up.  Just about all of my stocks are up but the gold stocks aren't going up much this day.  Gold is kinda stalling out after the Chicago Board of Options Exchanges decides to raise the margin requirements for traders who buy and sell gold futures contracts.  Gold prices stay about even on Thursday and lose about 30 bucks an ounce on Friday to close out the week at $1755 an ounce.  Both stocks I sold finish a little lower than where I sold at. 

Friday is another good day in the markets though not nearly as big a day as Thursday.  The Dow finishes up about 125 points though many of my stocks do not go up much and my gold stocks are all down a little.  The markets seemed to be taking a little break after the past week plus of yo yo-ing up and down.  By the end of the week the Dow is down 165 points from it's starting place or about 33 points per day on average.  Down just a bit under 1.5%.  But how it got here is really the story.  When you look at it, the market has really been in a downward trend for about a month broken by a few good up days.  Since 7/21, the Dow has given up about 1500 points which is quite a bit and if you take into account the low point it reached on Tuesday, that's over 2000 points. 

My take - I don't think a massive bear market recession like we saw in late 2008 and early 2009 is going to happen.  But people are nervous and the money sloshing around in the system (from QE1 and 2) is chasing two things, returns and safety.  When the economy looks good, money piles into stocks and you see the Dow go up 90% in 2 years.  When things look less good, money flows out of stocks just as quickly as people buy Treasuries, precious metals, or anything else that is going to provide some return without losing them money.  Why else buy a TBill?  The return is less than 1% per annum.  You lose money when you include the inflation.  But your principal is still there.  Buy the wrong stock and even with a dividend you can lose half your investment.  Even most "safe" stocks in a bad market can lose quite a bit.  Take Exxon-Mobil, one of the safest and best run companies in the market.  Between August 1, 2008 and March 5, 2009 it lost 22.5%.  Which beat the actual market return significantly between those dates but that's little solace to the retiree who may need to sell that stock to live on.  So money runs from the "unsafe" stocks and once that starts its almost a self fulfilling prophecy as institutional money managers join in the rout.  No one wants to be the last man standing when money is flying out of something. 

So as I said before, I don't think we have to fear a massive recession this time.  The issues in the markets with toxic debt, over leveraged banks, etc are not still waiting to come down and crush everyone.  But having said that, people are coming to realize the US economy is not growing like they want it to.  And people are nervous and pulling money out to buy safe stuff.  The Fed and the government don't have the tools they had in 2008 to help the economy along.  Of course they probably shouldn't have been helping it like they did already.  Those birds will come home to roost down the road but that's a rant for another post.  Anyway, though the Fed's tools are more limited now, they did use the one tool they did have when they basically said, "Hey, we won't raise interest rates for another 2 years."  Once traders had digested that information they came to realize that would be good for a number of industries like commodities.

What does this mean?  Well I don't expect the American consumer to go completely into a shell though I still don't think you will see the massive spend-a-thon like there was from 2002 - 2007 from people.  But that low interest rate will keep money out there sloshing around and all the money in the system already must lead to higher inflation sometime down the road.  Higher inflation will also lead to a devalued dollar which means the price of all commodities goes up.  So expect higher prices for foodstuffs, metals, steel, iron ore, oil which leads to higher prices for just about everything else down the line.  Stuff I want to invest in are the companies producing them or the companies that support them.  And some of them are now on sale.

You can get premier deepwater driller Transocean (RIG) at a little over 55 - about 10% above their yearly low - with a dividend over 3%.  Or you can wait and see if the market gets pounded again and take a shot at getting it for a lower price.  2 oil producers/sellers that I like are Exxon-Mobil (XOM) and Conoco-Phillips (COP).  Exxon has proven time and again that they know what they're doing in the oil game.  They refuse to panic & buy other companies at the top of the market but will when the market flops and they can get a deal.  Last year they bought out a natural gas producer XTO Energy giving them a huge presence in that field.  They seem to think natural gas is the next great energy field and I'm not gonna argue against them.  Conoco-Phillips announced recently they were going to split their refining business off from their exploration/production company.  The recent downturn in oil prices means you can buy the stock at $66 which is $10 less than when they announced the spin off and get 2 companies when the spin off happens.  Plus a 4% dividend.  Marathon Oil recently did the very same thing and the stock price went up 35% prior to the spin off. 

Oil services are also a good area to bet on the the petroleum industry.  National Oilwell Varco is in my opinion the best in the industry as they design and sell oil rigs plus the equipment on them.  Something like 90% of the oil rigs in the world have some equipment from NOV on them.  Both Brazilian oil giant Petrobras and BP have big new discoveries and will need to order billions of dollars of equipment to drill them.  A lot of that equipment will come from NOV.  Consider that the stock price fell from over 83 to 60 between 7/21 & 8/10 (it came back big to almost 67 now) and that based on their order backlog, there is no reason they won't hit $100 and you can see why I like it.   If you like something cheaper, Weatherford International (WFT) has fallen from the mid 20s to 17 recently.  They aren't as good as NOV but based on their expected earnings for next year, they should get back to the mid to upper 20s.  If you really like to take risks then take a look at Dryships (DRYS).  Dryships is a shipping company, mostly a bulk shipper (iron ore, grains, fertilizer, etc) but has since branched out in 2 areas.  They've got some new tankers with more on the way, and they have a 78% ownership in a company called Ocean Rig which builds deepwater drill ships.  While the bulk shipping segment has been getting killed over the past 3 years, deepwater drilling has been going great guns.  That has been keeping the company profitable.  But the company has a lot of debt and the CEO has no qualms about playing a bit fast and loose with the company funds, especially in dealing with companies of his relatives.  So this is a highly speculative pick.  The company is doing a partial spin off of the Ocean Rig shares in September or October and while you won't get a big piece (approximately 7.4 shares for every 1000 of DRYS owned) you will get a portion.  At $2.72 per share, you are taking some risk but you do get a fair amount of upside I think.

I also think leading gold miner Goldcorp (GG) is a good buy at just under $50 per share though I would buy in slowly.  Gold prices may sag a bit more over the next few weeks and that might let you get GG at $45 or less.  I think mid tier miner Yamana (AUY) is undervalued as it is increasing production at just the right time.  Both produce gold at the lowest cost in the business which gives them a lot of leeway should gold really tumble.  In the crash in 2008 gold fell to $700 an ounce.  These companies both produce at under $450 an ounce so even in a crash these 2 remain profitable.  Even though I sold half of my position in AUY at $15, I still like the stock.  But when you buy in at $4 and $7 a share, you gotta take some money off the table when it more than doubles.  If it falls back under 12 I'll probably buy more shares then.  I also sold off half my shares of Aurico Gold (AUQ) at $13 that I had bought at $7.50.  Again, I love their model, they are really increasing production at just the right time and I expect them to break $20 at some point in the not too distant future but taking profits off the table means I can sit on this stock and wait out any downturns in gold prices secure in the knowledge that I've made back almost all my money on it already. 

I stated in an earlier email that I like South American companies a lot, especially Brazilian and Chilean companies.  Both countries have worked pretty hard to keep their inflation in check by raising interest rates.  It's hurt their economies a bit but they are in far better shape and further along the economic cycle than the developed economies in the US and Europe.  Brazilian airline Gol Linhas Aereas (GOL) has been beaten down pretty bad and announced a not so good quarter recently but its a good company in a good market and when growth starts picking up again in Brazil, it will fly high.  I like their competitor, TAM SA (TAM), even more.  They got beaten down at the same time GOL did and thanks to an untimely downgrade by an analyst at my own company got crushed late last week and earlier this week when the market went down big.  Lost about 30% in 3 days.  But unlike GOL, they came out with a pretty good quarter and came back pretty strong on Thursday and Friday.  They are down about 10% from where they were.  They are set to merge with Lan Airlines (LFL) of Chile pending approval of the Chilean authorities and based on the rate of the merger and the price difference between the airlines, you can pick up a quick 10-15% gain assuming prices don't fall much from here.  As the economy in both countries improves, I'm hoping to see an even better gain as I bought TAM a while ago.  I mentioned Brazilian oil giant Petrobra (PBR) had discovered massive new oil fields off the coast and would be developing them.  I am not a fan of investing in PBR.  They are a good company with a possibly great future but they are a partially state owned company and the government takes a large chunk of money from them every year.  I'm not saying you can't make money with them, you can, but I think there are better ways to invest in oil in Brazil and I'll take the guys who supply PBR over PBR itself. 

Vale SA (VALE) on the other hand is a good play in my opinion.  Vale is one of the worlds largest iron ore miners and mines a lot of other metals such as manganese and copper not to mention coal.  They also are involved in phosphate and potash mining - read fertilizer - and platinum group metals as well.  Finally they recently purchased Bunge Ltd's fertilizer business in Brazil which gives them even more fertilizer exposure and supports another area I like, farming and food production.  Their price is down from 33 to 26.55 which is only 10% above their low for the year and they pay a 4% dividend.  What's not to like there.  I may buy into this stock if we have another big down day. 

I wrote a little about sugar producer Cosan (CZZ) once before and everything I have read recently seems to back up my belief that this is a stock worth getting into.  They reported so-so results last quarter but recently the price of sugar has headed up to new highs and with the sugar harvest in Brazil - the worlds largest sugar exporter - predicted to be 2 to 2.5 million tons less than original predictions, the price CZZ can charge for sugar exports ought to rise substantially.  The Brazilian government is also calling for more sugar to be put into ethanol producton.  Because they are the only sugar exporter from the Southern Hemisphere, they are the only sugar exporter during the summer up here.  Which means no one else will be able to take advantage of any price spikes until October or so.  CZZ recently fell from almost 13 to their yearly low at 9.50 and is only at 10.62 now with a dividend over 2.6%.  Needless to say this is on my watchlist as well.   It might be on my buy list Monday.

I am not big on bank stocks by and large at this time.  Not because there aren't some good banks out there, hell I own shares in my own company who has the 101st largest bank in the US and I've owned Banco Santander (STD is their stock symbol - who the hell decided that would be a good stock symbol to use on the NYSE???) for a while, but because so many big stocks are doing so poorly, all bank stocks are getting tarred with the same brush.  Unless your bank is reporting spectacular numbers, and the banks that are doing well aren't taking the kind of risks necessary to get spectacular numbers, your bank is getting knocked down everytime Bank of America or Citigroup has a bad report.  STD is a Spanish bank with a big presence in Brazil.  Every time bad news about Spanish debt comes out, STD gets knocked down.  A lot of bad news has come out of Spain lately.  Still they pay a good dividend and I'm willing to wait for banks to turn around here.  But if you want to play a bank without the bad European connections, you might want to look at Itau Unibanco (ITUB)

God this post is going on forever.  For those of you still awake (when I start talking stocks the PQ's eyes seem to glaze over so I don't blame you if yours do too.) I want to talk about one more thing.  Foodstuffs are still going up, with the short harvest of sugar and the possible short harvest of corn along with the low stockpiles of both right now, farmers are raking it in.  I mentioned picking stocks of the support companies in the petroleum sector.  Well that also applies here and in mining as well.  So I look at fertilizer producers such as Mozaic (MOS), Potash Corp (POT), Agrium (AGU), equipment manufacturers such as Deere (DE) for farm equipment, Caterpillar  (CAT) for heavy equipment, Joy Global (JOYG) for mining equipment and Cummins (CMI) who supplies engines for a lot of these companies along with many others.  None of them are cheap but compared to their expected earnings they all should do well.  Or wait for dips and see if you can really get a bargain

Well enough boredom for all of you.  I wish I were posting about killing it on the poker tables but I'm a bit on the poor side right now.  There was another thing I wanted to post about but that will be for another time.  Besides this post took me 3 days on and off to write up so that's probably enough to throw out there.  I hope everyone has had a good weekend.  All this must have wore me out, I'm taking a bit of a nap now.  Stay lucky you nuts.