My oh my, what a beautiful day

Actually what a beautiful week.  What an incredibly wild and wacky week it has been.  But first today. 

It is absolutely GORGEOUS outside today.  Low 70s, low humidity, cloudless skies with a cool breeze.  A near perfect day and a day that should be good for reffing tonight.  The high today is only supposed to be in the low 80s and it should be down in the 60s tonight.  Perfect football weather.  I almost can't wait.

Now for the rest of the week.  I must wish my heartfelt condolences to all of the Red Sox nation this week.  To watch your most hated rival blow a 7-0 lead to a team you need to lose then watch your own ace closer go out and blow a ninth inning lead.  That has to sting quite a bit.  Congratulations Red Sox, you've introduced a whole new generation of fans to the pain of being Red Sox fans.  The younger folks thought cheering for the Red Sox was gonna be all sweetness and light, like being a Yankee fan is.  Sure there is the occasional set back like blowing a 3-0 series lead, but there's always next year for a Yankee fan and he knows his team will be in the mix.  Old Red Sox fan never had that certainty.  Next year was just another chance to get your heart ripped out. 

Then "The Idiots" blow out 86 years of futility by first sticking it to the Yankees in historic fashion, then winning the World Series.  And do it again 3 years later while having some epic battles with both NY and getting a surprising challenge over the past few years from TB.  The modern Red Sox fan, stalwart of the Red Sox nation, had not known the kind of heartache that those over 30 or so had lived through time after time.  Losing in 7 to the Cards in 67, losing the AL East in 72 by 1/2 a game because a strike shortened their season by 7 games (but only 6 for Detroit), losing in 7 to the Reds in 75, losing in 7 to the Mets in 86 after the final out slipped through Buckner's legs, and maybe worst, losing a playoff game to NY in 1978 after leading by 14 games in July.  And then came this past week.  And they watched a team with no heart slowly toss away a sure playoff berth and probable match up with NY for another world series trip, over the course of one month.   They got to feel the agony of an entire month of heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss.  When so many of their heroes just didn't seem to care and the ones that did care just couldn't carry those who didn't. 

All of this culminated in Wild Wednesday.   Boston and Tampa Bay, tied at 90-71 and playing one final game to see if they would have a play off for the wild card spot.  After work on Wednesday I was playing poker at Derby Lane while the PQ was at Universal Studios in Orlando with her friend Kim.  Every year they go for a couple of days for Halloween Horror nights.  They get a hotel room there at the park, go to all the haunted houses and drink and carouse heavily.  So with no one here I decided to play some cards after work.  There were 2 tvs on the wall above my table so I could watch both NY/TB and Bos/Balt playing at the same time. 

I started off playing Omaha 8OB.  I love playing the game but they don't always have it going when I want to play.  Wednesday night they surprisingly had it going when I got there at 7.  I only recognized a few players which was also surprising as most of the people who normally play there are the same group of mostly oldtimers.  When you're one of the youngest at the table and you're over 50, you're at an old table.  This table had a mix going.  My cards on the other hand were not mixed.  They were almost all bad.  I had to dump most hands as they just didn't work.  In 2 hours I never had a hand with A2 and only twice had A3 in my hand.  Most of my hands would be like K-10-7-2 which doesn't get you far.  But I didn't push things and just kept folding hoping things would turn around. 

The Rays at the same time are doing their best to not make the playoffs.  David Price is pitching and he just doesn't have it.  Gives up a run in the first inning and then Texeira hits a grand slam off him in the 2nd.  After 4 innings it's 6-0 and definitely not looking good.  At the same time Boston and Baltimore are going back and forth and Boston takes a 3-2 lead on a Pedroia homer.  Baltimore is getting guys on every inning but can't get runs.  Scutaro turns one of the sweetest double plays you'll ever see and also makes a nice throw home to save a run.  A few people decide to leave after a couple of hours and I'm down almost half my buy in.  I haven't won a hand yet.  In fact I haven't even split a hand.  I finally do win a low part of a hand with a 3-8 but only for a few bucks.  I was in the big blind, the cards were terrible for us all and no one bet or I would have dumped that as well. 

2 more people decide they are leaving and we play one more hand.  I finally get something worth playing AA48 with A4 of spades and A8 of diamonds.  Not a fantastic hand but a good hand and better than almost every other hand I've played.  I'm on the button and just call preflop.  The flop is 983 rainbow and it's checked to me so I bet it and get 3 callers.  Turn is a K and again I bet and get 2 callers.  River is a 5 and it's checked to me a 3rd time.  I bet and get one caller and somehow scoop the pot with my A4 low and AA for high.  That put me almost back to even as the table broke.  Which is a lot better than my Rays who are now down 7-0 after Texeira hit another homer.  Baltimore is still down 3-2

Since it's only a little after 9 I decide to play some 1-1 NLHE while I watch the bitter end of the ball games.  After all, the Rays don't come back for 3 down too well, 7 down is looking pretty hopeless.  But this team is getting guys on base, they just can't get a hit when guys are in scoring position.  They get to the 7th inning in Baltimore and the deluge happens while the Rays strand 2 again in their half of the 7th.  Hold em is not starting well for me.  I get dealt JJ in late position and get 5 callers to my raise to 5.  Flop is king high and I make a continuation bet hoping no one has a king and will give me credit for one.  3 call.  No mas for me, especially after a queen hits the turn.  A little later I call a small raise from the small blind with 4-5 of hearts.  Flop is 10-4-5 with 2 diamonds.  I check, original raiser who I have already seen will raise most anything in position puts in a small bet that that button calls.  I raise them both up with a pot sized bet and the original raiser calls.  Turn is unfortunately another diamond.  I make a 1/3 pot bet and my opponent pushes all in.  It's not a large amount more and I have to make a decision.  Did he have AQ maybe or did he fill his flush.  I can see him making this play with A of diamonds and an offsuit queen but also with a made flush or a set of queens. 

I think for a while.  I doubt he has QQ by his bets but even if he has the flush I've got outs for the boat.  I'm not getting quite the odds for it but I think it's 30 or 40 percent that he pushed at me without the flush hoping it scared me off.  So I call and he has the flush.  I don't fill up and now I'm down a goodly bit.  But I buckle down and watch myself and my opponents.  This guy apparently likes his flush draws.  I see him make some odd calls and hit flushes.  I also see him chase to the river and give up a lot of chips chasing draws that don't hit.  He would call with almost any 2 suited cards and not let go no matter the bet.  If I had known that earlier I would have dumped my 4-5 to his all in.  Maybe. 

I get some revenge on him later on.  I call his raise preflop with KQ suited.  No flush draw for me but the flop was king high.  I bet into him on the flop, turn, and river.  He dumped the river and I got back some chips.  It's the 8th inning on tv and the Rays seem to be rallying along with me.  I get 6-6 in the small blind and call a lady's preflop raise to $4.  Flop is AQ6 with 2 spades.  Looking good but I'm not gonna go wild with it.  So I check and call her $6 bet as do 2 others.  Turn is another A.  I check again but everyone else checks as well.  River is a blank.  I decide to bet out this time.  I make it 8 wondering if I shouldn't have made it more.  Folded to the lady who calls me.  She flips over AK and is not happy to see my full house.  The Rays load the bases on 2 hits and a hit by pitch.  The next guy walks in a run.  Then another hit by pitch and it's 7-2 and still no one out.  Jennings strikes out but Upton rips one to left.  Unfortunately right at the left fielder but another run comes in from the sac fly.  Then Longoria comes up and blasts one into the left field seats.  7-6 baby!!  Could this really be a come back?  Jaso pinch hits a single and Maddon brings in Elliot Johnson to pinch run as he's quick.  He steals second on a pitch out and makes it easily.  Damon at the plate with runner in scoring position.  But he pops out to end the inning.  Oh great, now they've really sucked me in. 

Cards keep coming.  Mr Flush chaser chases one too many flushes and busts out.  I check in the small blind on a hand with 10-6 off.  Flop is K-10-6.  Bingo.  I bet and get 2 callers.  Turn is another 6.  I check to try and get a bettor into me but no go.  River is a blank, doesn't complete anything and I put out $10 to see if I can get some action.  Guy to my left calls me with a K.  Doesn't like my full house.  Only half my attention is actually on the game now as the Yanks go down in the 9th.  Rays come up and 2 go down quickly.  Mad man Maddon brings in Dan Johnson to pinch hit.  Johnson was the opening day starter at 1st but never panned out.  He did have some key pinch hits over the past few years at least.  But he only hit .115 this year.  He looks bad getting to 2-2 and then turns on a pitch and laces it down the right field line.  If it stays fair its gone and it does sliding just inside the foul poll and over the wall in the right field corner.  The poker room erupts except for a couple of Sox fans.

Now I have to stay and watch what else happens.  It's good that I'm almost back to even at least.  I lose some chips on a flush and straight draw that doesn't pan out while the Rays and Yanks get through the 10th and 11th.  Baltimore and Boston start up again and while Baltimore doesn't seriously threaten in the 7th or 8th, they do save a run when the cut down Scutaro at the plate to keep it 3-2.  But we all know Papelbon is coming on in the 9th so Tampa Bay has to win their game to have a playoff the next day we figure.  I get dealt 77 in the big blind as the 12th inning starts.  I call a small raise along with 4 others and get to see a flop of J-7-4 with 2 clubs.  I bet out $6 and get 3 callers.  Turn is a lousy 5 of spades.  Not what I wanted.  So I checked the turn and the lady I had taken down with 6-6 bets out for $8.  I think about dumping as I'm sure she has the flush but I don't want to give up this nice hand.  So I call and a guy to my left calls as well which surprises me.  I'm wondering what he has when the river comes out with a beautiful 4.  Now I'm thinking if I should bet or not.  I figure the paired board might scare someone off so I bet out for $14.  I'm surprised the guy to my left calls as well as the lady.  She is very unhappy with me when I flip up 7s full and dumps her flush.  Other guy didn't show but I think he had the straight.  I feel much better until I look up at the TV and see the Yanks get the first guy on when Longo can't make a play on a ball and the next guy singles him to 3rd.  Oh no first and 3rd and no one out.  It doesn't look good.  It's also about 11:45 and I gotta work in the morning so I decide I'll cash out almost even and head home.  If the Rays are gonna blow it in 12 and the Sox win their way into the wildcard spot, I'd rather hear it on the radio rather than see it.  And if I'm really bummed it's a lot easier to crash into a bridge abutment that way.  Boston goes down in the top of the 9th and Papelbon is coming on to close it out.

I get out to the car just in time to hear Longoria make a truly heads up play.  Rays killer Jorge Posada comes up to bat and grounds to 3rd.  Longoria fields it, sees the runner has taken a step toward home, and dives to tag him out before he can get back to 3rd.  Now it's 1st and 2nd with one out.  McGee shuts down the next 2 batters and the Rays still have life.  The announcers report that Papelbon got the first 2 batters while the teams change positions.  They report the next guy doubled and while Upton is batting, the crowd starts cheering as the score changes to Boston 3 Baltimore 3.  Upton strikes out and Longoria comes to bat.  I'm getting close to home when the announcers report Baltimore scored again to beat the Red Sox.  The crowd at Tropicana starts cheering when they see the final score posted then Longoria scorches a low line drive up the left field line that barely clears the wall inside the foul poll and the Rays are in the playoffs.  You gotta have heart said Gene Hackman in The Replacements, "Miles and miles and miles of heart"

Are the Rays a team of destiny or just another team that gets lucky to make the playoffs due to the ineptness of someone else and then gets blasted out like the pretenders they are?  I was really interested to see how they would come out last night against Texas, a team that has done pretty well against them this year.   Though the Rays were 4-5 against Texas, Wilson had been dominant the last 2 times against TB and only Shields had really been successful against Texas.  And he couldn't pitch game one.  So Maddon the Mad Hatter decides to start youngster Matt Moore who had only started 1 major league game.  A gutsy move but it turned out just right for him as Moore was masterful through 7.  The Mad Hatter also moved catcher Kelly Shoppach and his .176 batting average up to 6th in the order,  moving Sean Rodriguez to first and dropping budding star Desmond Jennings to 8th.  Jennings had really cooled off in September after a scorching August and Shoppach had actually gotten kind of hot over the final weeks of the season.  Though Rodriguez doesn't get any hits, everything else pays off as Moore shuts down the big hitting Ranger lineup and Shoppach hits 2 bombs as the Rays win easily in game 1.  Now they have Shields going in game 2 and that has to put them on the advantage.  Pessimist that I am, I don't yet believe in the destiny tag but if Shields wins today, I may change my mind yet. 



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When I said the Sox had no heart, that of course does not apply to all of them.  Dustin Pedroia is full of heart and should be made the team captain for years to come.  Jacoby Ellsbury, not withstanding his drop of Andino's drive on Monday when he hit the wall, also has plenty of heart and has my vote for MVP as well.  What a season and unlike Granderson, he played great down the stretch.  Scutaro played with plenty of heart as well.  But there were too many JD Drews and John Lackeys on this team and a lot of other guys who haven't been there long enough to establish a heart like Gonzalez, Crawford and Aviles.  I did have to change my opinion of one Red Sock on Wednesday.  John Lester pitched with plenty of heart.  He didn't have great stuff, struggled all night long and got bailed out by some great defense a few times, but on 3 days rest he did all he could to give his team a shot at the playoffs.  That my friends is heart.  But apparently this was not the same team as the Idiots who did everything together.  This team didn't get along all that well. 

Getting along is not a necessity for winning in baseball.  Hell the Yankees have proved for 30 years that you can buy enough players to win even if you don't get along.  But when times are rough and you need to pull together to win, you gotta know the other guy is gonna do his part to win.  It helps to have a team that gets along, that holds each other accountable and doesn't want to let each other down.  One thing I discounted about the Rays this year was how well they got along.  These guys really like playing with each other.  They have a leaders in Longoria and Shields who are among their hardest workers as well and as talented as David Price is, he is also their biggest joker as well.  A guy who gets a game winning hit and is interviewed after the game almost always got a pie in the face on air from one of those 3.  And the camaraderie infected them all.  If Terry Francona had one failing this year, and I have always considered him one of the best managers in the league, it's that he didn't put his foot down on his guys enough.  He viewed them all as pros able to take care of business but there are pros and there are pros.  Admittedly you have to manage a team of vets like Boston differently than a young team like Tampa Bay, but sometimes you gotta do things a bit different to get the results you want.  Maybe Francona thought it would look like panic if did some things differently and maybe he was fed up with having to deal with some of the egos he had been stuck with over the past few years.  Or maybe he just figured they would work out of this just like the funk at the beginning of the year.  He may have been right and they just ran out of time.  Now he is gone and it looks like the Sox may implode the whole thing and start over.  Which is a big help to the rest of the AL East in my opinion.

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Time for some picks then I have a few things to do before I referee today.  And here are my college picks for what its worth.  I have done ok so far this year, a far cry better than early last year.  Here's what I like

Give me Alabama -4 at Florida.  I think Bama's experience wins out over UF's speed this year.  Next year may be a different story but Bama looks like the real deal as much as I hate Nick Satan Sabin.

I'll take Michigan St +3 over Ohio St.   I think this is a close defensive game and the under may also be worth a play as well.

And give me Wisconsin -10 over Nebraska.  Nebraska has not been impressive at all against pretty weak opposition.  Wisconsin hasn't played the stiffest competition either but at home I think they roll over Nebraska.

I'm also looking at Georgia Tech -10 over NC St.  -  NC St got ravaged by Cincy and Ga Tech is better than Cincy.  Injuries are killing NC State this year.  I might play this one. 
And I'm looking at taking the over 60.5 in the Boise St/Nevada tilt.  These guys can score and both give up points as well.  I expect Boise to blow out Nevada after last year but they'll give up 3 TDs while scoring over 40. 
Take a look at Iowa St +9 at home against Texas as well.  Iowa St has covered every game so far and Texas just ain't that good.  I don't see them being all that motivated against a team they beat 56-3 last year.

So as I leave I hope you all stay lucky, as lucky as the Rays.

Are we gripping yet???

Boston fans are annoying.  Often times very annoying.  It didn't used to be that way.  After all, prior to 2000 there were no recent sports memories for Boston fans to be all that proud about.  They had endured a stretch from the last Celtic championship in 1986 to the 2002 Patriots before a world championship was won in Boston.  And the Red Sox, who have always been the most popular team in Boston, hadn't won a World Series in over 80 years.  Red Sox fans had endured Pesky's hesitation, Armbrister's Interference, Buckners Legs, and enough Curse of the Bambino to choke a horse.   And worst of all had to be Bucky  Dent and the 1 game playoff in 1978.  Ask any Red Sox fan around my age and he or she will probably call him Bucky Bleeping Dent. 

The Sox started out hot that year with a veteran lineup who had just missed winning it all in 1975.  Their biggest rival the Yankees started poorly and after the All Star break the Sox were sitting on a 14 game lead.  People in Boston were talking World Series again.  Then the roof caved in.  The Yankees got hot.  The Sox got cold.  NY came to Boston in early September still down 4 games and swept the 4 game series outscoring the Sox 42-9!  Red Sox fans were freaking out.   A week later NY was 3 games ahead after taking 2 more from the Sox.  But Boston sucked it up and went on their own run to tie the Yanks at the end of the season and force a 1 game playoff in Fenway Park for the AL East crown.  People forget today that Boston had to go 12-2 to make up 3.5 games against the Yanks in the last few weeks of the season.  NY didn't give it to them going 8-5 and winning 6 of the last 7 games but Boston went 7-0 down the stretch to tie the season up.  Only to lose the playoff game, at home, when Bucky Dent and his 5 home runs a year put one over the Green Monstah with 2 on.  I felt for Red Sox fans, I really did.  Hell I used to be one.  Was at work listening to the playoff game on the radio when Dent hit it out.  I still hate the Yankmees.  Always will.

Which brings me to my point.  Red Sox fans in their 20s and 30s didn't live through all the heart ache of fans my age and older saw.  After the fantastic comeback against NY in 2004 and then finally winning a World Series then winning it again only 3 years later, along with the 3 Super Bowls the Patriots won, the Celtics winning the NBA championship, and even the usually underachieving Bruins winning the Stanley Cup this year, younger Red Sox fans have become about as obnoxious as Yankee fans.  The expectations that they are going to win it all and all of their (recent) championship history just brings out the worst in a lot of them.  And man did they get uppity.  Last year all I heard was "Better take your pictures of Carl Crawford in Rays gear now cuz next year he'll either be playing left field for us or the Yankees"  Which is why I am deriving so much joy from the September swoon the Sox are going through now.  When Boston came down here last weekend with a 6.5 game lead for the wild card and left with a 3.5 game lead, I just had to chuckle.  Even guffaw a time or 2.

Now many of the younger set are just shaking it off, saying they're not worried.  After all who do they have to fear on Tampa Bay?  They're just going through a little slump like they did at the  start of the season and they'll get untracked.  But you older folks, and you know who you are, you people are GRIPPING.  You remember Bill Buckner.  You remember Bucky Dent.  You remember how every break seemed to go against you when you really needed one.  I know you're feeling it, I have proof.  The Boston Globe has a poll out now.  See the results here.  Almost 70% are extremely worried and only 6% are not worried at all.  Or check out this blog.  He doesn't seem very concerned does he? 

These younger folks, they may not believe it, but they're hearing it from you.  And finally its starting to mess with their minds a little.  Now all we need is for the Sox to totally collapse and their education will be complete.  They will be ready to join you on the Dark Side.  I will be sitting in my recliner rubbing my hands together like Emperor Palpatine laughing my evil dark side laugh. 

The Sox are suffering one of the curses of a veteran team, injuries.  Even though they aren't a particularly old team, many of them are not spring chickens anymore.  And the people that are out right now are the ones you cannot replace.  Youkilis, Bedard, Lowrie and most importantly Beckett are all banged up.  Youkilis is important to the team but losing Beckett is killing the Sox.  He does what no one else on the team seems able to do, he stops losing streaks.   As good as Lester is supposed to be, he couldn't get it done when they needed him to.  And right now, they need someone to step up and take control. 

Sports like baseball and golf that demand a high level of skill are the ones that also have a high mental aspect as well.  Confidence plays a crucial role in winning and losing.  When you are playing well and your confidence is high, you believe you'll win and you usually do.  When you're confidence is not high, a bad break, a bad call, anything can set the downward spiral going and before you know it you've lost another game.  A lot like poker when you think about it.  Lately the Sox have been living this.  If they don't get out of it soon, it'll be too late.  The Rays went through this in July and early August and only recently have really put it together but now they are loose, they feel good and most of all, their best players are all healthy.  The Beantown natives are getting restless.

My thoughts, 3 games are still a lot to make up in a short amount of time.  After playing Baltimore, the Rays go up to Boston - not the house of horrors Seattle and Oakland often are for them as they are 4-1 there this year - but still they have to go there, then NY then come home to play a good Toronto team and finish with the Yankees.  A very hard finish for them.  If they make the playoffs, they won't have backed in.  So you have to give the edge to the Sox who have 7 more games with Baltimore after the Rays series this weekend.  They do have a series with the Yanks as well and you know NY would love nothing more than to knock out the Sox.  Obnoxious Yankee fans live for those moments.

Personally, I still don't think the Rays get there but the Sox better watch out anyway. If Beckett doesn't get healthy, they could beat out the Rays and still not make it when the Angels sneak into the wild card.  They are also playing good ball now and even though they trail Boston by 5.5, it's not out of the question.  Improbable, yes but not impossible.  I know I'll be rooting for the Rays until the bitter end.  Considering how much I didn't expect the Rays to contend this year, especially after the Manny disaster and Longo's early injury, I have to say I am impressed.  The starting pitchers except for Price, have been better than expected, the relievers have somehow gotten it done with cast offs and nobodies, and the hitting has wavered between timely and putrid, lately timely.  They've done it with good starting pitching and smoke and mirrors but they're doing it.  What a way to finish the season.  If only the Yankees could go on a 15 game losing streak, this would truly be a season to remember.