Saturday's short term investments

Betting on sports takes a lot of analysis and a little bit of luck as well.  You can have everything going for you and still lose on a last second score in garbage time or a pick 6 to turn a close game into a blowout at the end.  I wish I could say that has caused my recent losing streak but in the end, I've just made some bad bets.  Today I'm turning it around, believe that if you feel lucky. 

I really like Michigan -3.5 at home vs Nebraska.  Good teams give Big Red trouble and Michigan fits the bill.  Running QBs also seem to be hard on their defense and Michigan's Robinson is definitely that.  I am not sold on Robinson as some kind of star as he seems to throw the ball up a lot and pray his receiver takes it away from the defense, but he extends a lot of plays with his legs and can go for a long run at any time.

I'm taking Ga Tech -10.5 over Duke.  Ga Tech runs better than anyone in college football.  Duke can't stop the run.  Nice weather so assuming Tech isn't in the giving mood, they win by 20+. 

Finally I like the over 57 for Boise St/San Diego St.  Both teams can score with top notch offenses.  SD St doesn't prevent the score as well as Boise.  Looking for a game in the 42-27 range.  It will probably be 10-7 instead but I'll take my chances.  I also looked really closely at taking SD St +18 as they are a pretty solid team.  Boise has to be down after blowing their chance at a National Championship game, especially with OSU losing last night.  I may yet take that flyer. 

In other news, PQ wants to play poker tonight so looks like we will be gracing Derby Lane with our presence.  I've been playing a bit online lately but not particularly well.  I also need a nap this afternoon as I have been up and down since 3:45 this morning.  The dog had to go to the bathroom then.  I turned to her after I took her out and said "You know, I really wanted a fish."  I wish she understood but I don't think she did as she was jumping on me at 7 for the same reason.   At least I am able to walk around outside in shorts and a shirt still.  It was cool but nice out, maybe low 60s.  Sucks to live in Fla in the winter. 

BTW I took Denver +4.5 over the Jetskis on Thursday.  I was very happy to see how that one ended.  Tim Tebow will never be confused with a classic pro QB but the man gets it done one way or another.  I noticed at the end of the game, his passes were right on target.  And he can make plays with his legs and take hits that would wipe out other QBs.  You are gonna see a bunch of teams using the option read offense like Denver is because most QBs are not big enough to stand up to that kind of pounding.  I seriously doubt Tebow can for many years either.  But he can run it now and say what you will, he wins.  I've been a fan of his for a long time.  I know he's converted a lot of non-fans with the way he plays.  I am no Bronco fan but I am now.    Well enough for now, I need a nap. I hope you all are lucky today. Maybe bet against me and you will be.

Lucky we have a dog

The PQ left me all alone yesterday as she headed out to Orlando with her sister and our niece to spend some time at Universal Studios.  Our daughter joined her there and they had a good time last night or so I am told.  I on the other hand was all alone, flying my big ole bed with no copilot.  Well I did have the dog at least.   And a good thing too as it was a bit chilly last night, all the way down to 50 and below.  Brrr, haven't seen weather that cool in many months.  But the dog kept me warm, no frost bite or anything.  Of course there is a bad side to this as someone licked my face at 6am to go outside. Still a bit chilly then as well. 

Today I don't have much planned.  Maybe I'll actually pitch some cards this afternoon or tonight.  I need to do a couple of things with my car today and some laundry as well. I'm so domesticated sometimes.  I was thinking about making a beef stew for when the wife gets home but maybe not today.  She might end up picking up dinner on the road back from Orlando.  But before I do anything else, I better put down a few short term investments on the college games today.  Haven't been running well the last couple of weeks but today we turn it around

I'll take over 50 in the Miami/FSU game today.  Game should be fairly high scoring, I wouldn't be surprised if they are close to the over by half time.  Then again I've been wrong enough lately to know it might be 3-0 at the half as well

I also like Western Ky getting 42 against LSU.  WKU is a decent team playing in a classic let down game for LSU.  LSU should still win comfortably but they are already #1 and beat Bama last week.  I'm sure there are a lot of bumps and bruises they want to get healthy so I'll take the dogs. 

I was looking at the over in the Oregon/Stanford game today but the weather has me worried as it's supposed to be rainy today.  A wet natural turf field would slow Oregon down a bit.  So I think I'll avoid that one.

Finally I want to take Iowa +3 at home vs Mich St.  Iowa has played well vs Mich St covering the last 5 times they played.  I think they win outright here but I'll play it safe and take the points.

Well gotta get to work here.  Hope everyone has a great day.  Hope it warms up a bit more today like to 75 or so.  Cuz it's supposed to be in the 40s tonight. 

Another bad investing weekend

Went 1-3 yesterday again.  Ugly.  Of course after looking at it, I didn't play the Arkansas game which at least would have brought me up to 2-3.   I am looking at a couple of pro games today however.  Here's another chance at investing glory or going down in flames. 

Give me the NY Jetskis +2.5 over Buffalo.  I hate picking Mark Sanchez but I think they are playing well while Buffalo is searching for who they are.  The road team seems to win this one a lot.  I'll take the points and a 1 point game.

I also like the under 42 in the Pittsburgh/Baltimore game.  Pitt has maybe found a defense and last year both teams were under 32 in both games.  I throw out week 1 as an anomaly, especially in light of what Jax did to Flacco. 

Stay luckier than me everyone.  At least in betting.

Saturday night's all right for fighting

Let's hope not as I'd prefer not having to deal with that in my games tonight.  Looks like it's gonna be another rainy day today.  We got rain off and on last night and its really wet out there today.  This morning has been more of the same.  I wouldn't be too worried about it for my games tonight if I was in Seminole but I gotta ref in Pinellas Park.  Seminole's field is in good shape and drains pretty well.  Rain all day would make it a bit messy but nothing bad.  Pinellas Park's field is not in great shape.  It drains poorly.  Last time there was major rain on a game day, the field was a quagmire and a good part of it was under water.  If it keeps raining today, I don't want to see what the field will be like when I get there at 5 tonight.  Well, I can pray for some sunshine still.  Won't dry the field but will keep it from getting worse at least. 

I just checked today's forecast and this afternoon should be partly cloudy with a high in the 70s.  It could be worse.  I could be back in Rhode Island where they're expecting a high in the 40s and snow tonight.  Snow in October?  I remember some flurries that early a couple of times growing up but not anything that stuck.  Never had to ref in the snow thankfully.  Late last year we had to do a game at night when it was windy and in the 40s.  That was cold.  But it wasn't snowy or rainy.  That would have been ugly. 

Congrats to the St Louis Cardinals on another World Series win.  I was half rooting for them as I admired how they had come back from the dead just like the Rays and made it to the playoffs.  I was also half rooting for the Rangers as I used to be a fan of theirs when I lived there and they've never won one before.  But since the Rangers knocked out the Rays from the playoffs in both the last 2 years I was also rooting against them.  I've heard the ESPN talking heads call game 6 of this series one of the greatest games ever.  Really??   Exciting, yes but great game??  I don't think so.  3 Cards errors leading to Ranger runs.  And I'm not talking about a booted ground ball or a bad throw, I'm talking a pop fly to left turning into "you got it,  no you got it, no I got it, no nobody's got it"   A bunt fielded and thrown into centerfield.  Wild pitches.  The works.  Then in key positions the Rangers can't get the final out to end the game including Cruz not catching Freese's drive to right that ends up being a tying triple in the 9th.  That was a very catchable ball.  A good right fielder makes that play.  Guys like Cesar Geronimo or Dwight Evans made that play routinely in the 75 series.  Still it was very exciting.  Too bad I was too beat to watch the last couple of innings.  Or maybe a good thing as I got some sleep instead.

Well this has been a quiet week on both the work and referee fronts.  I haven't done any games since last Saturday and my hip now feels fine.  It was a good time for a little break, my body was really feeling it and this rest gave me a chance to recover.  Work settled down a little this week.  And the market rocked.  Europe finally got off their ass about the Greece issue and put out some semi concrete plans on how to deal with it that made some sense to the powers that be.  It is no real solution, just kicks the problem down the road a ways but it brought some stability to the issue and the markets responded really favorably.  It worked out well for a number of my holdings.  Gold was up nicely (I'm sure Mojo is please that Goldcorp went from $45.50 to $50 this week), Sanofi which is the French drugmaker who makes a lot of the flu vaccines, took off for me this month, going from 31.88 to 37.50 this month.  Doesn't happen if a deal isn't announced.  Transocean (RIG) really went up as well.  It started October at 46 and finished Friday at 60.  That was a nice month.  I almost bought more when it got down that low but I had no extra cash and didn't want to sell anything then.  I probably should have. 

Now time for some short term investment information.  I'm looking at a few games today.  College has really been good for my bankroll this year, much better than the past 2 years.  First off I want Wisconsin -7.5 over Ohio St.  OSU has been improving but they're not in Wisconsin's class yet.  Wisconsin has to be disappointed about the way they lost to Mich St.   Are they mad about the loss?   If so, they spank OSU.  If not, they play a sluggish game and hopefully still cover.  I'll take them.

Next I like Penn St -5.5 over Illinois.  Illinois is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.  Their only cover against a woeful Indiana team.  Penn St has been improving as the year goes on.  Lets take them at home on a day likely to be pretty sloppy. 

Give me Arkansas -10 at Vanderbilt.  Vandy is 4-3 and playing at home but lets look at who they've beaten.   Elon?  A bad Mississippi team.  An ok UConn and an ok Army team.  Nothing much.  Arkansas has played much tougher competition and had their scare at Mississippi last week.  They won't overlook Vandy. 

I kinda like Kansas St +13 at home vs Oklahoma.  OU cannot be happy about last week's loss to Texas Tech but KSt is playing really well especially at home.  3 teams in common so far this year with similar results from both teams.  I can't see OU winning that big as much as Stoops wants to.

Finally give me the over 61.5 in the USC/Stanford tilt.  Both offenses put up a lot of points.  Should not have a problem exceeding the number.  

That's all I got today.  I'm gonna wrap this up by hoping everyone stays warm and dry up there in the northeast.  I will write again tomorrow as I've been working on a different post but have a lot more to do with it.  Till then I hope you all stay lucky.  Make good picks everyone.

No longer a zombie

Wow after doing 3 games last night I came home looking just like this guy up above.  And feeling like him too.  A cold shower did a lot to at least cool me off as it was huuuuuuuuuumid yesterday and last night.  At least it cooled off some as the sun went down.  The games themselves went off fine and I only was hit pretty good once in the back, but when we finished I was ready to get off the field. 

I woke up this morning looking better but still feeling zombieish and my legs were sore but I felt better than I did last night.  The PQ and I took her mother out to breakfast.  Some steak and eggs, toast, and homefries with plenty of coffee and tada, no longer a zombie. 

Just got back after picking up a couple of prescriptions and some things at the store.  I got out of cooking breakfast today by using some referee cash and buying it but the PQ has already told me I'm not getting out of cooking dinner for her.  So I had to pick up a few ingredients and some salad stuff.  Chicken piccata at 5:30.  Drop by if you want a bite.

Time for some picks.

There isn't a lot I like today on the NFL slate but here's a couple I may play.

I'll take the over 54.5 in the New England/Buffalo contest.  I don't see either defense doing enough to stop either offense.  I figure we might see a score like 38 - 28 in this one.

I like Houston +4 in New Orleans due to injuries to both Marques Colston and Jonathan Vilma. 

Give me the Raiders +2.5 vs the New York Jets.  This game should be a walk for Sanchez against the weak Raider secondary but this is the type of game where Sanchez has been known to lay an egg, especially if he is pressured.  The Raiders can get to the QB and NY lost their center, All Pro Nick Mangold.  This Raider offense has a lot of weapons, even with injuries to Murphy and Ford and may have found a star in Denarious Moore. 

I was looking at the Steelers -10 (now -11) vs Indy but something about Pittsburgh doesn't seem right to me.  I expected them to completely blow out Seattle last week and 24-0 is a blowout but not to the extent I expected.  Yes Indy is pretty bad without Peyton but I just think this will be closer than that.  I also thought about taking Miami -1.5 vs Cleveland as I think they will play better on the road than at home.  I may still take that one.

Had a decent day on my short term investments yesterday.  LSU proved to me they are for real by thrashing West Virginia but it was a close game until the 4th quarter.   Alabama easily covered, Middle Tennessee St stayed right with Troy before losing by 3 and easily covering as well.  UCLA was the best of the picks as they won outright at Oregon St as a 4.5 point dog.  Wish I had played that one on the money line instead of taking the points.  But it was nice to finish in the money again this week.  Not sure if I want to put any of my profit on the table in today's games, maybe I'll just take the over in the Patriot game.

That's enough for now, almost kickoff time.  Stay lucky you nuts and remember, bet with your head, not over it.