" Mistakes, I've made a few but then again...

How's the weekend going everybody?  I just got home from 5.5 hours of work (yes working on a Sunday even) but upon reflection, it's been a good weekend.  Thursday night the PQ took me out for a steak dinner - she had a ribeye and I had a NY strip with grilled onions.   Most delicious.  I had the leftovers for lunch Friday, both hers and mine.  Even better. 

Friday was a long day at work but then I took her out Friday night for dinner after getting my hair cut.  I really needed one, I had been meaning to get one for the last 3 weeks or more but just kept forgetting about it (make that kept being a slug) and my hair was long.   I wasn't quite this guy but I was close.

Me before Friday

Now I have my summer cut to stay cooler in the heat so I look a bit better.  Almost like this

Me about 15 years ago

We grabbed some pizza Friday night and made a pretty early night of it.  Most nights I make an early night of it.  5:15 am comes waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too soon every day.  Saturday morning I did my usual, watched Law and Order and had a donut and some iced coffee.   The PQ went over to her sisters then had a manicure/pedicure appointment.  We decided to change things up for poker on Saturday and do the 1pm tourney rather than our usual 8pm tourney.  We found that we were such zombies on Sundays after playing till 2 or 3 (or 5) in the morning in this tourney that we wanted to play during the daylight hours instead.  It worked out pretty well as we were able to get out of there about 8:30 pm.   And here's the story about that.

The PQ was running behind on Saturday as her mani/pedi ran a little long but we got down there just in time for the tourney.  We were at separate tables and when we started my table only had 2 of us sitting there though it gradually filled up from there.  We started with 10k and for $5 more you could add on 2000 more which I did.  25 minute blinds meant  you got some good play for your 105 bucks.  80 people signed up and the top prize was a bit over $2100 with the top 8 paid.  I got a couple of decent hands early and used my position to chip up a bit.  I took my 12K up to almost 14 but then just before the first break I got my first big hand, KK on the button.  Short stack across the table pushed all in.  He took a bad beat a round before that cost him all but 2500 chips.  Everyone else folded and I raised to 6k to isolate him.  We went head to head and he had A10 of diamonds to my cowboys.  I had the diamond king as well.  Flop is not good, QJ of diamonds and 6 of clubs.  turn pairs the J so I'm still good but the 4 of diamonds on the river made his flush and put me down to about 11K. 

After the break my cards stayed pretty lousy but the table was broken soon after so I got to try my luck on some other suckers card sharps at the next table over.  I was there for only a couple of rounds, didn't play anything but lost some chips for antes and blinds before that table was broken.  Sucks to have to keep moving but it's just the luck of the draw I know.  With around 10K I moved to my next table.  This one I knew wouldn't break for a while so I settled in for a a long session I hoped.  The PQ was on the table next to me.  She was struggling when I first got there but then had a big double up and the next time I looked over, she was pretty flush.  I didn't get anything for a while and the blinds and antes were starting to eat me up.  I was down to about 9500 with blinds at 400/800 with 75 antes when I looked down at 10-6 suited in the small blind.  A couple of people called including the big stack in seat 10 so I decided to pay the other half the blind to see the flop as did the guy in the big blind next to me.  He was in the process of building a good sized stack as well.  Flop come out 10-9-2.  I check to see what happens though I like the flop.  Big blind checks and big stack bets 3500.  I read that as a pure steal with maybe a pair of 2s or 9s.  The pot had about 3900 so he almost put in a pot sized bet there.  I pushed all in over the top for 9100 which made him unhappy I could see and he folded.  That took me from 9500 to over 16K when I really needed it.

I managed to keep chipping up on a couple of other hands and went past 20k when I looked down at AK off on the button.  The guy to my left had won a monster hand and was up over 65K by then but I felt good with my stack after where I had been.  A couple of people limped but I took it up to 2600.  I was hoping to take it down but the big stack calls me while everyone else folds.  The flop is near perfect with AK8.  Unfortunately 2 are clubs but I'll take my chances there.  I bet only 3K which was a bit under half the pot there.  He called me but I was fine with that.  Next card was the 10 of spades.  Ok now there is a possible straight if he called me QJ and still a flush draw on the board so I decided to stop fooling around and pushed  all in for about 15K.  I was surprised when he called.  He turned over AJ off and said "you have A10 don't you?"  Uh no.  Also why are you calling if you feel pretty sure you're beat there?  You were but AK or A10 is beside the point.  That was about  half his stack just to call me down with AJ.  

I've read a number of times that the key to winning poker is to make less mistakes than the other guy and boy I got a first hand look at that Saturday.  I had chances to make big mistakes myself.  We were getting late in the tourney.  12 people were left at 2 tables and 8 got paid.  I'm in the big blind with 5-5 and was looking to make a move and pick up a limper or 2.  Then a shorter stacked gal pushed all in one off the button.  It was folded to me and I had a decision.  She didn't have to have a big hand I thought but she had about 31K in the pot and the blinds were 1500/3000.  I started counting out the chips from my stack then while I thought.  I had built up to 80K and was in good shape.  In the end I folded.  I figured at best I was 50/50.  She could be bluffing with 10-9 and I wouldn't be much of a favorite.  And if she had 9-9 I was a big dog.  So I tossed it.  I think I avoided a mistake there, even if I ended up winning the hand.  The lady pushed in a hand or 2 later with 88 and ran into KK.  Goodnight to her. 

We got to the final table and I am a little below average at 78K.  Average stack was 96K. Usually there are 1 or 2 monster stacks and a number of shorties.  I figured I would be 4th or 5th in chips even with less than an average stack.  I was surprised to see only 1 monster stack, 1 shortie, and a bunch of us between 70K and 110K.  I'm probably 7th at that point.  Action goes slow for the most part.  The short stack doubles up and then takes down another nice pot to get himself into nice shape.  Some chips get exchanged back and forth.  Guy a couple of seats to my left loses a big pot but then takes down a good one.  I'm getting nothing and bleeding chips.  My one steal attempt got raised up by a big stack and I had to respect his raise there.  Finally one guy gets knocked out in 10th place.  Everyone pitched in $20 for the bubble so the guy going out 9th will get 160 which is more than it cost to enter.  But I'm not interested in just making my money.  8th is 260 and it goes up from there.

Two guys across the table plus the guy on my right build big stacks around 200K each.  Guy directly on my left was the shortest stack but doubles up and is in decent shape at almost 100K.  I'm down to just under 40K and me and one other guy are the shorties.  I'm trying to wait out a hand or find a spot to attack but the 2 big stacks across the table are raising a lot of hands and when they don't the guy just to my right is.  I'm getting into desperate territory when I catch AA in the big blind.  2 big stacks call and it gets to me.  I'm tempted to just play it there but I really don't want to lose by slow playing aces.  If I slow play them, I don't have the stack to get away from them and a bad flop does me in.  So I pushed in.  I was surprised they both folded.  Still I got a decent chunk of change.  I got some more on the next hand when it was folded to my small blind and I raised the big blind out.  At 4K/8K with a 700 ante I made about 40K on those 2 hands.  Then the one big stack loses a large chunk of his stack to the other biggie and to the guy 2 seats on my left.  

2 hands later fireworks break out.  Min raised preflop and by the former big stack in seat 3 and called by the maniac in seat 4 along with the guy 2 seats to my left (seat 9).   Flop is KQJ with 2 diamonds.  Guy on my left checks, seat 3 pushes all in and seat 4 does too.  Guy on my left has them both covered but not by too much.  He thinks a minute and calls.   Seat 3 has 10-9 for the flopped straight, seat 4 has K9 for top pair and a straight draw (he called a raise with this then pushed in over an all in???) and seat 9 shocks me with A2 of diamonds.  Turn is another K and the river is a low non diamond.  The ex biggie is a biggie again as he triples up to over 200K.  Seat 4 wins the side pot for about 50K and seat 9 is down to 20K.  Soon after seat 9 is out and the money bubble breaks

After that I treaded water, made a few steals and used my position to improve my stack while some of my seatmates were not able to do so.  I kept picking on the guy in seat 1 and took his blinds a number of times.  I also made some chips off the guy on my left.  He got very unlucky when he pushed in for his last 35K with pocket 10s and the one of the big stacks in the big blinds called him with J2 and flopped a jack.  I took out a shorty with 65 when I hit a 6 and his AJ did not improve.  Then I took out the maniac in seat 4 when he pushed all in with A4 and I called him with A10.  I had refused to call his earlier all in with A-10 when I felt it a little suspicious.  I may have goofed that time but with his chips at 50K and mine about 80 I didn't think it was worth that risk.  But for 30K when I had 90, I took him down.  Eventually we get down to 4 people.  3 big stacks with 300K+, 300K, 200K and me with 120K.  Wish I could say I doubled up and took it down but after a couple of rounds I pushed KQ into KK and it was good night Irene.  Still coming out with a $720 payoff was sweet.  The other 3 split the rest for about $1400 each. 

My best thing until my last hand was avoiding mistakes.  I avoided getting it in on 50/50 hands or what I perceived were 50/50 situations and I stayed patient when things were getting tough.  I found a couple of weak links and picked on them.  Got a rep for playing good hands, enough that a fairly small stack raised preflop and I reraised him enough to put him all in.  He looked at me,  looked at his cards and eventually mucked 9-9 face up.  He put me on a big pocket pair.  I showed him AQ.  I thought he had something like he did and at that point was willing to pressure him.  I was a bit surprised he dumped it at it was almost half his chips.  My reraise may have been a mistake but at that point I knew I could pressure him and even if I lose, I still have a decent stack.   And I dumped a number of good hands like AJ, A10, and A9 to all in raises (not to mention 5-5) when I felt at best I'm 50/50.  But before I pat myself on the back too much, I know I didn't take advantage of position enough and let my stack get blinded down more than I should have.  I also got lucky that some big hands got called by guys with not as big hands so I could chip up.  At the final table I was not so lucky there as the KK and AA I got were both uncalled but otherwise I could not complain at all.  It was a good time and I was home by 10.  So I wasn't a zombie today and managed to work a good bit as well.  All in all a profitable weekend all around.   Hope this week goes as well.  Happy Tax Day to all.  Stay lucky you nuts.

   

Its a good friday

Right now any day I get off from work is a good day.  Not that I dislike my work but I am well and truly buried right now.  I mean, I like water too but staying below it too long can lead to a less than optimal outcome.  I have been averaging a bit over 11 hours a day for the past 6 weeks or so and even been putting in time on the weekends as well.  I was this close to going into work today for 4 or 5 hours.  So needless to say, as tired as I've been, I'm sure the quality of my posts have been a bit off.  I know the quantity has been as well.  Sorry, guys and gals, man's gotta make a living. 

At least the paychecks have reflected my worker bee status of late.  I'm actually earning almost as much as the PQ does.  Last year I earned about 20% more in OT pay over my regular pay during the year.  This year I am almost 3/4 of the way to that amount already.   So while I'm a tired worker bee, I am also a decently paid one too.  But man is it cutting into my free time.

I used to get up at 6:30 everymorning and arrive at work around 7:45.  I'd work till 5:15 or 5:30 and take an hour lunch.  Now I'm up at 5:15, into work between 6 and 6:15 and work till around 6 pm.  Lunch, when I take one, is a half hour at most.  I usually have 2 to 3 hours on the phones everday.  Almost every shift is one phone call after another.  I then spend an hour taking emails and logged calls into our work flow.  Except it usually takes about 2 hours to complete one hours work.  So generally 4-5 hours of my day is taken up by tasks that don't let me address my own pile of work.  And it's the same for almost everyone else in the department.  What makes it worse is that work is coming in at a higher rate than we can do it.  We have more people in the department than ever before but because of changes in the tax laws that went into effect in 2011 and the changes in our software, we are receiving more work than ever before.  We normally get a bit buried this time of year as it is and last year was busier than any other year since I started here.  This year has made last year look like a picnic. 

I checked my workflow list yesterday for fun.  I have work scheduled all the way out to May 25th already.  That's a lot to catch up on.  We are frustrated, our clients are frustrated, our financial advisors are frustrated.  The software is not doing all it was supposed to do, a lot of bugs are still being worked out still, and it slows down how we process things.  So our work is taking longer to complete as well.   I got yelled at by an FA last week.  I let it go but this guy is a bit of a jerk in the best of times.  When I explained the issues we were having he said how he didn't want to hear it.  When he said we should work overtime I was ready to come through the phone lines and choke his miserable chicken neck.  Instead I refrained from even mentioning how much OT we were already putting in and ended the call with my usual grace and tact.

Well enough of my work trials, y'all don't need to be bored by that crap.  And as I mentioned, I am making a bit of scratch out of all this so I can't complain.  It would be nice not to be ready to go to bed at 9:30 every night but that is sometime in my future.  Like August or so.    It has made it very difficult to play the 8pm tourney at Derby Lane on Saturday nights.  I'm drinking coffee at 9 to keep from getting sleepy before 10.   Not the best mindset to play poker with.  I did manage a decent score a few weeks back but the PQ has done far better.  She just missed the money last Saturday going out 7th. 

On other fronts, the stock market has been acting pretty weird lately.  Started out the year going gangbusters but in March it got pretty choppy and so far this month has been blah.  Gold has been getting hit pretty bad but I've taken the opportunity to buy some more gold mining stocks.  I really fear the market is in for a big downturn in the near to mid term.  We have pumped so much money into the economy that some bad inflation is a foregone conclusion.  So my belief is that prices for things like gold will eventually head back up and when they do they will head up quickly.  Basically anything denominated in US dollars is going to feel this pinch.  Unfortunately I also believe this country is in for some pretty hard times.  Using the government to spend our way out of all of our bad decisions does not solve the problems we have, it pushes them down the road further.  Eventually the day of reckoning must come.  Just like the recession in 2008 was the eventual day of reckoning after the tech bubble burst in 2000, the spending we have done to save us from that crash has delayed the day of reckoning from all of the excesses of the past 10 years. 

I remember those days well in late 2008 when it looked like all of the markets were imploding and the financial companies were teetering on the edge of collapse.  Even the survivors like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were this close to going under as it was a domino effect where each of the Wall St players that folded had so many links to all of the other ones that they all took a hit.  The amount of leverage these firms were using to boost their profits was enormous, and when times went bad, all of that leverage started working against them.  All of the firms that got in trouble and either went bankrupt or merged like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch had billions in reserve.  More than enough money to tide them over through any normal downturn.  But this wasn't normal and when you're leveraged 35-1, every dollar down costs you $35 and that starts to add up to billions pretty fast when you have that much crap outstanding.  

Hell even my conservative company was worried and when the government bailout was proposed, our CEO was one of the big backers of the plan.   Though we aren't a Wall St firm, we are a pretty big regional player.  And based on what was happening, the Fed backstopping all of these idiot firms kept things from going completely in the crapper.  But maybe that wouldn't have been such a bad thing.  The following US firms would have definitely gone bankrupt:  Merrill Lynch, (bought out by Bank of America before it could go under), Bear Stearns (bought out by JP Morgan as it was about to go under), Lehman Brothers who did go bankrupt, AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wachovia Financial, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at the very least.  We might also have lost JP Morgan, Regions Financial and BB&T as well.  The first TARP bailouts prevented wholesale bankruptcies of most of the large commercial and investment banking institutions.  The only large banks that were in good enough shape to weather this were Wells Fargo and US Bancorp and Wells might not have been in serioud trouble as well.  

In my opinion, the problems with the bailouts go to the following ones.  The feds pitched more money into AIG, Citigroup, and then GM, Chrysler, etc.  Instead of letting these firms fold and others that do business with them take a haircut (Goldman would have taken a nice beat down as they had a lot of business tied in with AIG, if AIG declared bankruptcy after the initial crisis passed, Goldman takes a major bath - WHICH THEY RICHLY DESERVED.   They knew the risks they were involved in and ignored them.  If they all go bankrupt in September or October 2008, who knows how far the damage to the financial system goes.  That is what truly scared everyone.  But if they stop at the single backstop, they know Goldman, Morgan Stanley, etc are not going under while AIG and Citigroup are gonzo.  GM would also have gone under.  Hell they still declared bankruptcy even with government help.  Now the taxpayers own a big chunk of GM and I tell you what, I don't want a piece of that company.  These bankruptcies would have allowed the system to wash out toxic assets, a number of poeple would have had to eat a lot of crow, and some people would have gone to prison as they should have.  And bankruptcies, while bad for the people working for those companies, open things up for other companies to come in.  Ford is being penalized because they saw the future and took major risks to clean themselves up before the recession.  They got healthy at just the right time because they didn't keep going business as usual back in 2005 -2008.  Now they have to compete with GM who did everything wrong and yet gets government backing to come back.  Is that fair to Ford and all of their employees and stockholders?  

Anyway, to wrap up, I feel these chickens are going to come home to roost and I fear it will be sooner rather than later.  The way the economies of the world are now interlocked almost makes it a foregone conclusion that the next crisis will be even worse for the unprepared.  And though you may think you have time to plan for this, these crises seem to spring up very quickly.  My preparations have involved selling off some good winners and raising cash.  I've also used some of that cash to buy more gold/silver mining stocks over the past few weeks.  I am really looking at the miners who are increasing reserves and are low cost producers.  Both Goldcorp (GG) and Yamana Gold (AUY) are among the lowest cost producers in the world.  Even if the price of gold fell under $1000 an ounce (and if it does, you really ought to think of buying some) these 2 companies will make money as their cost of production is only around $250 an ounce or less.  Others I like are companies that are increasing both their reserves and production.  Brigus Gold (BRD) and Paramount Gold & Silver (PZG) are doing this quite well and are really cheap.  Another I took a flyer on is Aurcana Corp.  They are a silver miner who is opening up a new mine that goes into production this year.  They will be tripling their production this year and next as this new mine has great deposits but won't last for long.  As long as the price of silver remains where it is, they should show some terrific profits over the next 2 years. 

I've also taken on some oil stocks.  Deepwater driller Seadrill (SDRL) is a bit risky but pays a great dividend and deepwater is where the profits are for drillers right now.  Norway's Statoil (STO) is really doing well and has some major new discoveries they are bringing to market.  They pay a solid dividend as well.  Also, as a Norwegian company, they are unimpacted by the fall of the dollar or Euro as the Norwegian Kroner is a very very strong currency. 

I feel I've taken a bit of a risky position with my portfolio though going to 30% or more in cash does give me a backstop and lets me buy good stocks at great prices should the market tank again.  I just think a major market downturn is in the works and I'm putting my money that way.  I may be way too early for it and be ruining my chances of making good money over the next couple of years, but I'm willing to wait it out until then.  Based on what I'm seeing, the markets are just too jittery and there are too many things that can go wrong for everything to keep going up like they did in the beginning of the year. 

Well enough for now.  My Friday was pretty good, relaxing and being a slug much of the day.  I went out to dinner with the PQ, our daughter, and one of our nieces then hit the wine store.  I gave up wine for Lent this year so I stocked up for Easter as I plan on having a bit of wine that day.  Then we hit the Twistee Treat for some ice cream (I'll take a chocolate dipped cone please) on the way back.  It was quite a good Friday.  I hope everyone else had a good Friday as well.  Have a great weekend folks. 

I got an itch

And I don't think this will cure it.

Looks like poker is on tap again tonight.  That ought to scratch my itch.  I hope my play is better than it has been.  I have been playing a little online to some success though some bad beats keep hitting at the wrong times.  But that is beyond my control, if I get it in good I've done all I can.

This was a busy week at work.  I've learned some new processes which I will be doing next week plus I'm getting trained on a few other things.  Oh yay.  Still, the more I know, the more they need me.  Not a bad problem to have is it?  After all I don't have dirt on the company founder unlike some unnamed female accountant.  From Saugus.  Come to think of it I have family in Saugus as well.  My dad's parents came from that area.  My grandfather was a lifeguard at Revere Beach when he was young and my grandmother lived across the street from the Bunker Hill Monument in Boston. I remember visiting some of the family there when I was young.  Which was a long time ago.

Outside of the work, the only other thing I really did was watch some of the Casey Anthony trial last weekend and the decision this past week.  I commented the week before on another blog how I thought she would get off.  I also thought she was guilty as well but I just didn't see any way the state proved she did it.  I was hoping if the jury let her off that they would convict her of a lesser charge.  Problem was there never was an incidence of child abuse the state could tie to her and without even a cause of death for the baby, how do you convict of even manslaughter.  The state did a good job of pointing to Casey Anthony and making sure the jury knew who lied to the cops again and again but that is no proof of someone being a killer.  And since she never took the stand, there was no testimony in court that the state could point to and say "She lied again, she must have done it."  In the end the jury convicted her of the only thing they could, 4 counts of lying to the cops.  The judge imposed the strictest sentence he could of 1 year for each count to serve consecutively but with time served, gain time, and good behavior the 3+ years she's served is enough to get her out of jail on July 17.  Great, happy birthday to me.  My present is Casey Anthony goes free.   Unlike my friend Mr Lightning, I take no great pleasure in that one.

I love DVR.  I get to watch my shows when I want to, I don't have to stay up till 11 to see some of them, and I get to skip those annoying commecials.  I swear between most of those Progressive commercials (I just can't stand that Flo chick) and that AT&T commercial where the guy lays his phone on the table with a tarantula picture on it and the other guy takes off his shoe and slams it.  What is it with AT&T commercials?  That are generally some of the most annoying on tv.  Those Owen Wilson commercials naming all those people covered by AT&T?  Annoying as hell.  This latest one?  Even more annoying.  My wife says I get annoyed too easily, especially at stuff outside my control.  She's probably right. 

The last couple of weeks have been good to my stock portfolio at least.  All of my mining stocks were up nice but the biggest gainer was actually Cal-Maine Foods (symbol CALM).  I'm not sure why the stock went up so nicely but a 15% gain in about 3 weeks is nice.  Too bad all of my stocks haven't done that well.  I dumped a couple of losers and am looking to dump at least one or 2 more and I have a couple I am thinking of buying.  But I gotta do more homework on them first.

Well that's all for now.  Gotta hit the showers and then get ready to take down the tourney at Derby Lane.  So I'm outta here.  Tomorrow maybe I'll drive over to the Orange County Detention Center and drop your contact info off to Casey Anthony for ya Lightning.  Till then stay lucky you nuts

Living for the weekend

Well I got through another long week this week.  It was busy but it wasn't too bad.  Unfortunately next week appears to be a lot more involved.  My boss is on vacation until after the 4th which means I'm going to be doing a few more reports this week.  It won't be as bad as a last week when a number of people were in training for the new system but I expect it won't be too much fun either.  We also have a new employee that I helped train last week and will be working with again next week.  Oh well, it could be worse, I could be unemployed.

We bought a car this week.  Not a new one but a used Jeep Liberty.  Never had a Jeep before but with the daughter needing a car to drive at school and us needing her to earn some money as well, it seemed like the best idea.  At least we got a good deal on the car and on the loan.  3.75% for a used car loan.  Now that is low.  I have been reading that the major banks have been unable to increase their loan portfolios because of all of those homes that are not being paid for and people not wanting to take out new loans and the fact that they now are actually setting standards (besides a warm body with a pulse) before they loan people money.  Which means a lot of banks are competing for the same loan business and they only way they can compete is to lower interest rates on the loans.  So even though we used the county employee credit union, the lower rates filter down to everyone.  Supply and demand at work for me for a change baby.

Time for a little investment info.  Not that my investments are doing all that great at the moment.  Well let me rephrase that, some of my investments are not doing all that great.  Some are doing pretty well still and some are only ok.  But first I want to say, avoid the big bank stocks.  The worst of them being Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C).  That's not to say I think either of them are going to fail sometime soon, or even later in the future, but they both have so many problem home loans to work through that it is going to be quite a while before they start to provide the kind of returns they used to.  They both have gotten through the worst times pretty much intact and in the case of BAC, they added Merrill Lynch to their stable which can only help them at sometime.  However this isn't the same Merrill Lynch you or your parents grew up with.  They were holding a lot of bad paper when they merged with BAC otherwise they wouldn't have merged.  Add in the merger with Countrywide Financial and all of their toxic loans that BAC did a couple of years before and you have a mess of ugliness that BAC has to wade through.  Citigroup was in even worse shape during the financial crisis.  They were this close to not making it.  They still have a lot of issues.  Both banks along with Wells Fargo (WFC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) who both came out better than BAC and C are reducing their reserves against bad loans which does help the bottom line but they are all suffering from the slow economic recovery here in the US as well as their lack of exposure to growing markets.  In fact the worst of the bunch, Citigroup, has the best foreign exposure and is getting some help there.  They did sell some of their foreign stakes to raise cash over the past few years but they just bought a part of a Russian bank to regain some of that.  None of the other banks have nearly as much foreign exposure.

The biggest problems for the big banks are their lack of loan growth.  Oh in BAC's case, their incredibly stupid handling of a number of foreclosures has meant that a number of homes they thought they could take over and sell are still in doubt and in some cases, they are going to have to give them up.  In the words of the immortal Jay G. gun nut extraordinaire, "play stupid games, win stupid prizes".  Or in BAC's case, hire stupid/crooked lawyers, lose stupid court cases.  Both JPM and WFC got through the crisis much better with less bad loans though WFC ate a bunch when they bought out Wachovia (who had bought out Golden West financial of California at the top of the market, the west coast version of Countrywide)  but they all face the same problem, lack of new loans.  Since they make money (usually) but taking in deposits and paying a low rate of interest for them and then loaning the money out at a higher rate of interest, they need loans to make money.  Especially since the volume of mortgages is much lower today than it was a few years ago.  So what I'm trying to say is, I would avoid most very large US banks as investments today.  Their earnings are not really improving and they don't pay the kind of dividend I would want while I wait for earnings to improve. The only large one I feel confident in recommending is US Bank (USB) as they have a decent dividend that will probably increase and they are actually increasing their loans.  They took very little TARP money (compared to say C or BAC, 6 billion is still a lot to me and you)  and that was only because the government made them.  They paid it back as soon as they were allowed.  I imagine they probably had it set aside to pay back they whole time.  Now they are maybe 1/10th the size of JPM and BAC but they are still very large.  And unlike many of their brethren, a solid and safe bank. 

Another very interesting bank that could be a good one to invest in is PNC Financial.  Excellent earnings that are growing nicely and a small increase in total loans for the year.  Also a decent dividend that I believe will increase.  They are about the same size as USB and have just signed an interesting deal to buy the US branches of Royal Bank of Canada.  They become much bigger by branch count and get into a number of areas they had little or no presence.  I also think they are worth a look. 

Finally one that I do have a chunk of that has been good to me is NY Community Bank (NYB) who primarily focuses in multifamily residential lending in the NY area, especially around the city.  Their earnings have dropped some over the past year and their loans have fallen a little bit but they got me through the financial crisis intact and they pay a very nice dividend.  I got into them a little under $11/share and rode them up to $19 where I sold out of half my shares.  They have a very nice dividend of .25 per share per quarter (9%) where I bought them and they were never in any danger and never took any TARP money.  Even though the stock is back down to $15 now, they made some nice purchases of bankrupt banks last year and should show a nice pop in the future.  I am debating buying more shares here while I keep reinvesting my dividends.  Either way, I'm playing with the house's money in this stock now. 

One area I have done well in and am buying more of at the right time are mining stocks, especially gold miners.  I've had shares of Yamana Gold (AUY) for about 3 years.  I bought some, sold half when it got high, bought more when it went back down and now am holding for the long haul.  It pays a good dividend for a gold miner, not great compared to many others, but it has increased the dividend substantially over the past year.  I think they have a very good future especially with the price of gold at $1500 an ounce.  I also bought into a few of junior miners that have some really good prospects.  As long as one of them is a home run, and I think 2 of them will be based on results, I will be fine.  They are my way of speculating and also ensuring if inflation really increases in the future, and I think it's bound to, I will have some upside to match it.  The ones I am in are Brigus Gold (BRD) who seem to be on a huge strike right now, Rubicon Minerals (RBY) who also has a large strike they are developing and Aurico Gold (AUQ)  who may have the best near term prospects of all.  I expect BRD and RBY will take a couple or 3 years to pay off but I think AUQ will be a quicker return.  I have time to wait and I doubt gold will fall below $1000 an ounce in the near future, or even further out.  Unless some major changes happen in our government and with the Fed, I don't see how it can go down much.  So like the silver bears say, buy the *&%#ing dips.  Which is what I have done. 

Sorry about that, I know I enjoy talking investing and markets but most people, my dear wife included, get glazed eyes whenever I start talking.  I am fascinated by some of the stuff that's gone on in the business sector but most people could care less.   Then again, I have been called a little strange before so that wouldn't surprise me.  So what else is happening out here.  Well for one, it looks like the PQ and I will play some live poker today.  She wants to play in the 8pm tourney again.  So looks like thats a go.  I have played some online stuff in small buy in tourneys and had a little success,  In fact I took down a Stud Hi/lo tourney this week.  It was only $1.10 buy in with about 70 runners.  I got $33.00 for my first place finish.  Lost on the river a few times when I knew I was ahead but also hit quad 3s to take down one hand and a straight flush to beat up a guy's full house.  Stud hi/lo is hardly my best game and I doubt it prepares me too much for playing NLHE tourneys but it did get my mind in the groove thinking about how to win hands, when to bluff, who might be bluffing me, etc.  I also took 3rd last night in a small buy in Hold em/Omaha8 tourney.  I like that mix of games.  There were 40 players and it paid top 5.  I ran well early then took a couple of bad beats when the blinds went up.  I got short but kept plugging away and took down an all in pot against the table chip leader and a short stack who got all in preflop when I flopped a set with 66 and he liked his top pair medium kicker way too much.

I got to the final table as a medium stack and then improved immediately in an Omaha hand when I flopped a straight with Q8 of diamonds on a J-10-9 flop .  No chance of a low hand and though I worried about someone sitting with KQ a little, I thought the flush redraw with an inside straight flush draw made this a hand to go to war with.  So I bet a bit over half the pot and get two callers, a big stack and a shorty.  Turn is a 6 of hearts and I make an almost pot sized bet which puts the shorty all in if he calls.  I want to see if someone is sitting on KQ or a flush draw.  I figured a KQ would have come over the top already and I like my chances against a flush draw as if they have and Ace or King of diamonds in it, I got 2 of their outs cutting down their chances and anything less and I have them.  I also have the chance of a straight flush and even if they do have KQ, I have outs still.  The big stack thinks for a while and dumps it making me think he had a King high flush draw.  I think with the Ace he stays.  The small stack immediately calls and I think "damn he has the KQ"  Turns out he didn't, he had top two pair.  What?  You're staking your tourney on top 2 pair, no flush or straight draws, and are willing to call all in with that flop?  I was shocked.  He didn't hit his 4 outer and I was  3rd in chips with 8 to go. 

After that nothing much happened and I had to dump the 2 steal attempts I made when the flops and bettors did not cooperate.  We get down to 6 and I am 5th but not too far from the other 4 who are pretty close.  In the big blind I get AJ suited.  The small blind pushes all in and everyone folds to me.  I thought and figured I was at least 50/50 and maybe a big favorite as he could be pushing Ace rag.  So I call and he flips over K6 off.  What?   You wait this long and then push K6?  But it works for him as he flops a king and I get crapped on.  He doubles and I'm now the shorty instead of being almost even with the other 4.  The very next hand Mr K6 pushes all in again UTG.  I want to call with 4-2 but dump it and the big stack in the big blind calls him with AQ.  This time he flips over KJ and goes out when an A hits the flop.  Buh bye, thanks for giving away my chips. 

Once in the money, things got strange.  I am still shortest by a good bit but 2 hands later the big stack gets it in with the guy in 4th and takes him out.  Why he felt he had to push when I was as short as I was is beyond me but maybe he felt the big stack was on a steal (he wasn't) and felt his A-10 was good.  I'm sure he hated to see AK in the big stacks hand.   I got a walk in the big blind and then pushed all on the next hand for a complete steal.  I had a little breathing room but not much when the guy in 3rd tangles with the guy in 2nd and gets whacked.  Next hand I get 3-3 and push all in.  Get called by guy with A9 and he flops an ace.  Good bye to me but 3rd was nice all the same and after losing that hand to K6, I was struggling to stay in.  So we'll see how the tourney goes tonight.  I wouldn't say I'm ready but I'm not completely out of sorts either.  I'll let y'all know how it goes tomorrow.   Till then, stay lucky you nuts.