Its a good friday

Right now any day I get off from work is a good day.  Not that I dislike my work but I am well and truly buried right now.  I mean, I like water too but staying below it too long can lead to a less than optimal outcome.  I have been averaging a bit over 11 hours a day for the past 6 weeks or so and even been putting in time on the weekends as well.  I was this close to going into work today for 4 or 5 hours.  So needless to say, as tired as I've been, I'm sure the quality of my posts have been a bit off.  I know the quantity has been as well.  Sorry, guys and gals, man's gotta make a living. 

At least the paychecks have reflected my worker bee status of late.  I'm actually earning almost as much as the PQ does.  Last year I earned about 20% more in OT pay over my regular pay during the year.  This year I am almost 3/4 of the way to that amount already.   So while I'm a tired worker bee, I am also a decently paid one too.  But man is it cutting into my free time.

I used to get up at 6:30 everymorning and arrive at work around 7:45.  I'd work till 5:15 or 5:30 and take an hour lunch.  Now I'm up at 5:15, into work between 6 and 6:15 and work till around 6 pm.  Lunch, when I take one, is a half hour at most.  I usually have 2 to 3 hours on the phones everday.  Almost every shift is one phone call after another.  I then spend an hour taking emails and logged calls into our work flow.  Except it usually takes about 2 hours to complete one hours work.  So generally 4-5 hours of my day is taken up by tasks that don't let me address my own pile of work.  And it's the same for almost everyone else in the department.  What makes it worse is that work is coming in at a higher rate than we can do it.  We have more people in the department than ever before but because of changes in the tax laws that went into effect in 2011 and the changes in our software, we are receiving more work than ever before.  We normally get a bit buried this time of year as it is and last year was busier than any other year since I started here.  This year has made last year look like a picnic. 

I checked my workflow list yesterday for fun.  I have work scheduled all the way out to May 25th already.  That's a lot to catch up on.  We are frustrated, our clients are frustrated, our financial advisors are frustrated.  The software is not doing all it was supposed to do, a lot of bugs are still being worked out still, and it slows down how we process things.  So our work is taking longer to complete as well.   I got yelled at by an FA last week.  I let it go but this guy is a bit of a jerk in the best of times.  When I explained the issues we were having he said how he didn't want to hear it.  When he said we should work overtime I was ready to come through the phone lines and choke his miserable chicken neck.  Instead I refrained from even mentioning how much OT we were already putting in and ended the call with my usual grace and tact.

Well enough of my work trials, y'all don't need to be bored by that crap.  And as I mentioned, I am making a bit of scratch out of all this so I can't complain.  It would be nice not to be ready to go to bed at 9:30 every night but that is sometime in my future.  Like August or so.    It has made it very difficult to play the 8pm tourney at Derby Lane on Saturday nights.  I'm drinking coffee at 9 to keep from getting sleepy before 10.   Not the best mindset to play poker with.  I did manage a decent score a few weeks back but the PQ has done far better.  She just missed the money last Saturday going out 7th. 

On other fronts, the stock market has been acting pretty weird lately.  Started out the year going gangbusters but in March it got pretty choppy and so far this month has been blah.  Gold has been getting hit pretty bad but I've taken the opportunity to buy some more gold mining stocks.  I really fear the market is in for a big downturn in the near to mid term.  We have pumped so much money into the economy that some bad inflation is a foregone conclusion.  So my belief is that prices for things like gold will eventually head back up and when they do they will head up quickly.  Basically anything denominated in US dollars is going to feel this pinch.  Unfortunately I also believe this country is in for some pretty hard times.  Using the government to spend our way out of all of our bad decisions does not solve the problems we have, it pushes them down the road further.  Eventually the day of reckoning must come.  Just like the recession in 2008 was the eventual day of reckoning after the tech bubble burst in 2000, the spending we have done to save us from that crash has delayed the day of reckoning from all of the excesses of the past 10 years. 

I remember those days well in late 2008 when it looked like all of the markets were imploding and the financial companies were teetering on the edge of collapse.  Even the survivors like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were this close to going under as it was a domino effect where each of the Wall St players that folded had so many links to all of the other ones that they all took a hit.  The amount of leverage these firms were using to boost their profits was enormous, and when times went bad, all of that leverage started working against them.  All of the firms that got in trouble and either went bankrupt or merged like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch had billions in reserve.  More than enough money to tide them over through any normal downturn.  But this wasn't normal and when you're leveraged 35-1, every dollar down costs you $35 and that starts to add up to billions pretty fast when you have that much crap outstanding.  

Hell even my conservative company was worried and when the government bailout was proposed, our CEO was one of the big backers of the plan.   Though we aren't a Wall St firm, we are a pretty big regional player.  And based on what was happening, the Fed backstopping all of these idiot firms kept things from going completely in the crapper.  But maybe that wouldn't have been such a bad thing.  The following US firms would have definitely gone bankrupt:  Merrill Lynch, (bought out by Bank of America before it could go under), Bear Stearns (bought out by JP Morgan as it was about to go under), Lehman Brothers who did go bankrupt, AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wachovia Financial, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at the very least.  We might also have lost JP Morgan, Regions Financial and BB&T as well.  The first TARP bailouts prevented wholesale bankruptcies of most of the large commercial and investment banking institutions.  The only large banks that were in good enough shape to weather this were Wells Fargo and US Bancorp and Wells might not have been in serioud trouble as well.  

In my opinion, the problems with the bailouts go to the following ones.  The feds pitched more money into AIG, Citigroup, and then GM, Chrysler, etc.  Instead of letting these firms fold and others that do business with them take a haircut (Goldman would have taken a nice beat down as they had a lot of business tied in with AIG, if AIG declared bankruptcy after the initial crisis passed, Goldman takes a major bath - WHICH THEY RICHLY DESERVED.   They knew the risks they were involved in and ignored them.  If they all go bankrupt in September or October 2008, who knows how far the damage to the financial system goes.  That is what truly scared everyone.  But if they stop at the single backstop, they know Goldman, Morgan Stanley, etc are not going under while AIG and Citigroup are gonzo.  GM would also have gone under.  Hell they still declared bankruptcy even with government help.  Now the taxpayers own a big chunk of GM and I tell you what, I don't want a piece of that company.  These bankruptcies would have allowed the system to wash out toxic assets, a number of poeple would have had to eat a lot of crow, and some people would have gone to prison as they should have.  And bankruptcies, while bad for the people working for those companies, open things up for other companies to come in.  Ford is being penalized because they saw the future and took major risks to clean themselves up before the recession.  They got healthy at just the right time because they didn't keep going business as usual back in 2005 -2008.  Now they have to compete with GM who did everything wrong and yet gets government backing to come back.  Is that fair to Ford and all of their employees and stockholders?  

Anyway, to wrap up, I feel these chickens are going to come home to roost and I fear it will be sooner rather than later.  The way the economies of the world are now interlocked almost makes it a foregone conclusion that the next crisis will be even worse for the unprepared.  And though you may think you have time to plan for this, these crises seem to spring up very quickly.  My preparations have involved selling off some good winners and raising cash.  I've also used some of that cash to buy more gold/silver mining stocks over the past few weeks.  I am really looking at the miners who are increasing reserves and are low cost producers.  Both Goldcorp (GG) and Yamana Gold (AUY) are among the lowest cost producers in the world.  Even if the price of gold fell under $1000 an ounce (and if it does, you really ought to think of buying some) these 2 companies will make money as their cost of production is only around $250 an ounce or less.  Others I like are companies that are increasing both their reserves and production.  Brigus Gold (BRD) and Paramount Gold & Silver (PZG) are doing this quite well and are really cheap.  Another I took a flyer on is Aurcana Corp.  They are a silver miner who is opening up a new mine that goes into production this year.  They will be tripling their production this year and next as this new mine has great deposits but won't last for long.  As long as the price of silver remains where it is, they should show some terrific profits over the next 2 years. 

I've also taken on some oil stocks.  Deepwater driller Seadrill (SDRL) is a bit risky but pays a great dividend and deepwater is where the profits are for drillers right now.  Norway's Statoil (STO) is really doing well and has some major new discoveries they are bringing to market.  They pay a solid dividend as well.  Also, as a Norwegian company, they are unimpacted by the fall of the dollar or Euro as the Norwegian Kroner is a very very strong currency. 

I feel I've taken a bit of a risky position with my portfolio though going to 30% or more in cash does give me a backstop and lets me buy good stocks at great prices should the market tank again.  I just think a major market downturn is in the works and I'm putting my money that way.  I may be way too early for it and be ruining my chances of making good money over the next couple of years, but I'm willing to wait it out until then.  Based on what I'm seeing, the markets are just too jittery and there are too many things that can go wrong for everything to keep going up like they did in the beginning of the year. 

Well enough for now.  My Friday was pretty good, relaxing and being a slug much of the day.  I went out to dinner with the PQ, our daughter, and one of our nieces then hit the wine store.  I gave up wine for Lent this year so I stocked up for Easter as I plan on having a bit of wine that day.  Then we hit the Twistee Treat for some ice cream (I'll take a chocolate dipped cone please) on the way back.  It was quite a good Friday.  I hope everyone else had a good Friday as well.  Have a great weekend folks.