Hoping for a Super Sunday

Well its finally here for NYG and NE fans.  Though I'm no longer a Pats fan, I can't deny I grew up a fan of them and still root for them except when they play the Buccaneers.  The Pats opened up favored by 3.5 which was immediately bet down to 3.  A lot of money has come in on the Giants and almost everyone I hear is picking them to win.  Which makes me feel that the Pats will probably find a way to win.  Whenever everyone is betting one way, it's time to bet the other way.  This is true for sports and the stock market. 

When you look at the teams everything seems to point to a Giant victory.  They have played a tougher schedule and seem to be playing better down the stretch.  Eli Manning has played very well in some very tough situations like the monsoon they had in SF 2 weeks ago.  They are completely healthy now which was not true for most of the season.  Their defensive line is putting a lot of pressure on the QB, they are running the ball better and playing better defense.  They beat the 1st and 2nd seeded teams in the playoffs on the road.  Everything seems to be setting up for a magical finish for them today. 

The Pats on the other hand played a very easy schedule compared to NY and you can't say they looked great in beating Baltimore on a missed field goal (after a dropped TD) to get into the superbowl.  Of course Baltimore was a tough team to play and I was impressed on how they handled the Ravens running game for the first 3 quarters and if they didn't turn it over 3 times, they might have taken down the Ravens a lot more easily.  While their defense was not great during the season, they have played pretty well in the playoffs.  But the injury to Gronkowski is going to hurt them today.

How do I see it.   The Patriots win if they successfully run the ball.  They have to negate the Giant's pass rush to have any chance to go downfield to Gronkowski and more importantly Hernandez.  Those 2 are matchup problems for any team but if they cannot use play action to freeze the linebackers, it's gonna be a long day for the Pats.  You can run on the Giant's D and if you do and get time to pass, the Giant secondary is not very good.  They cannot turn it over 3 times.  You have to think the Gmen will be able to score some points with Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham not to mention Bradshaw and Jacobs.  If the Pats turn it over and fall behind by 10 or more, they're cooked.  Then it's Brady back to pass and Giant linemen pinning their ears back and heading for the QB.  And Tom may be terrific but he ain't so fleet of foot.

For the Giants the recipe is exactly the same.  Ensure they can run the ball, avoid turnovers, and don't fall behind.  They have been very good protecting the ball and getting turnovers.  At some point that has to end.  Maybe today.  Belichik is supposed to be the genius at designing defenses, does he confuse Eli enough to make a few mistakes?  Logically no.  You cannot defend good wideouts like the Giants have with converted wide receivers and expect to keep them contained.  So logically I have to give the Giants the edge in this game. And if the Pats turn it over, this could be a blowout win for the Gmen.  But I just don't think so. 

I think we'll see a large dose of Benjarvis Green Ellis today for the Pats.  Run and run and run again until they've softened up the Giants D enough to complete some big plays to the tight ends.  And Green Ellis doesn't fumble, in fact he hasn't lost a fumble in his career.  If he is making yards and keeping the Pats in manageable 2nd and 3rd downs, they can control the game and maybe win it.  If the Giants shut him down without overloading the box it'll be a long day for the Pats.  Everything seems to be setting up for the coronation of Eli Manning as the new elite QB of the league but I just feel he doesn't have a great game today and turns it over early. The Pats get a lead which allows them to continue to run the ball and then take shots downfield.   So I'll take the Pats to win - and probably have to eat my words.

Well time to go all.  Enjoy the game, lets hope its a good one.  I'll be at my sis in laws to watch the game.   Looks like I'll be the lone NE fan there but they'll take pity on me due to my upbringing and recent dental surgery.  Or they'll laugh in my face everytime NY scores.  Have fun everybody.